Is it worth waiting for decisive steps from Zelensky to protect Saakashvili?
On October 1, ex-President of Georgia Saakashvili returned to his homeland, where he was immediately arrested, because there he was sentenced in absentia in several cases. The politician faces up to 6 years behind bars, reports with reference to.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would seek the return of Saakashvili. In turn, the Georgian leader Salome Zurabishvili noted that she would never have mercy on a politician. Journalists asked experts how the confrontation around Saakashvili could affect relations between Ukraine and Georgia, and whether it is worth waiting for any decisive steps on the part of Zelensky.
Relations between Georgia and Ukraine: what's next
So far, political analysts are confident that relations between Ukraine and Georgia will not deteriorate. So, Elena Yurchenko , an expert on strategic culture of the Analytical Center ADASTRA, noted that now there is no reason to believe that the arrest of Saakashvili will provoke a serious aggravation of relations between Kiev and Tbilisi.
The rhetoric at the level of the Prime Minister of Georgia, Irakli Garibashvili, Speaker of the Georgian Parliament Kakha Kuchava, Head of the Georgian Foreign Ministry David Zalkaliani remains friendly to Ukraine: with all its might Georgia does not want to allow Saakashvili's detention to turn into a toxic factor in bilateral relations.
Saakashvili has already become the cause of an international scandal when in May 2020 he was appointed by the president to the post of head of the Executive Committee of the National Reform Council. Then the Georgian authorities went to call Ambassador Teimuraz Sharashenidze from Kiev to Tbilisi for consultations – and he returned to Kiev only in April 2021.
– Elena Yurchenko reminded.
She added that now the Georgian side, as we see from public statements, is constantly broadcasting its desire to prevent a repetition of such a situation. So far, the Ukrainian side is acting quite correctly: the Foreign Ministry focuses on non-interference in Georgia's internal affairs and on the observance of legality and transparency in the investigation of the crimes incriminated by Saakashvili, and on the provision of legal and consular support.
Against the background of the existence of productive strategic partnership relations between the states, imbued with a common spirit of Euro-Atlantic aspirations, which are confirmed in the formation in the spring of 2021 of the “Associated Trio” consisting of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, as well as the general activation of relations in the spring-summer of 2021. Neither side wants to make sudden movements and make all the successes achieved depend on one political figure, although it was Georgia that was the first to make such statements.
– explained Yurchenko.
Dmitry Sinchenko , head of the Association of Political Sciences NGO, also believes that the detention of Saakashvili will not have significant consequences for Ukrainian political life. In his opinion, Ukraine's reaction should be exclusively at the diplomatic and institutional levels – requests should be made to Georgian colleagues and answers should be received, but in no case should quarrel over this arrest.
It seems that exactly this line of behavior was chosen by Ukrainian diplomats, and therefore, I am convinced that this event will not have a significant impact on Ukrainian-Georgian relations, and if it does, it will be rather positive, because Ukraine with this arrest simultaneously lost a significant irritant in our interstate relations,
– noted Sinchenko.
Andrei Sukhrakov , a political scientist, noted that the situation remains “hot” because of Saakashvili's beloved – the people's deputy from the “Servant of the People” Elizaveta Yasko. Her rhetoric may be misunderstood, which could lead to a sort of clarification of relations between the foreign ministries of the two countries. But here it is clearly not worth counting on an international scandal.
As for Zelensky's statements, this was expected, given his rhetoric that Ukraine will help any of its citizens abroad, which is in trouble. Wait for some decisive action? Unlikely. The latest events related to Saakashvili look too fresh in the memory. An orchestra man, broke through the border and became an excuse for memes due to the situation with standing on the roof. And the authorities remember this too. And they know that in relation to him, any situation can turn into a media farce,
– explained Sukhrakov.
Why should Zelensky return Saakashvili
Dmitry Sinchenko added that for the current Ukrainian government, Saakashvili is a “played card” , everything that she wanted to get from him – she has long ago received. The scandalous ex-president of Georgia has no political party, no team, no rating, he did not influence anything and nothing depended on him.
For these and other reasons, he became bored in Ukraine, so he went where, in his opinion, he had the best prospects for returning to an active political life. Therefore, this step will have consequences not so much for Ukrainian as for Georgian policy. With this step, he will try to activate and strengthen the Georgian opposition forces in order to regain power,
– explained Sinchenko.
Elena Yurchenko explained that Zelensky, as the head of state, is responsible for ensuring the rights and freedoms of Ukrainian citizens, especially in crisis situations like the one that happened to Saakashvili. His political background both at home and in Ukraine is more than controversial, but Saakashvili has consistently supported Zelenskiy during and after the struggle for the presidency. It was Zelensky who returned citizenship to Saakashvili a week after taking office, and subsequently actually invited him to the post of secretary of the Executive Committee of the National Reform Council.
Saakashvili's political style, character and background created expectations in the president's team regarding the intensification of the reform process as such, even its radicalization, especially in comparison with other participants in this structure.
I think this resonated with the president's personal vision in this direction. However, it is still difficult to assess the specific achievements of Saakashvili in this position, except that his appointment provoked tension in relations between Kiev and Tbilisi, and now his decision to return to Georgia, although he knew about the accusations against him and the hypothetical consequences of such an act, more once put Kiev in an uncomfortable position,
– added Yurchenko.
The expert clarified that in fact, Saakashvili's return to Ukraine is possible in case of his conviction, only after the end of the sentence, which may increase, given that he is now charged with illegal border crossing. Georgia has the right, but not the obligation, to transfer Saakashvili to Ukraine, provided that the Ukrainian side confirms its intention to conclude it immediately upon arrival in the country – such a procedure is provided for by an agreement between the states. But Saakashvili refused to hand over to Ukraine, and the Georgian government has already categorically denied the possibility of such a development of events.
In my opinion, one should not expect Ukraine's decisive and radical steps to return Saakashvili – all of them are a priori impossible if Ukraine wants to maintain good relations with Georgia and remain within the legal framework. Although this is rather a recommendation and a wish – for Kiev, the price of such escapades is high, given the difficult international political situation and the value of Georgia as a strategic partner,
– Yurchenko summed up.