GENERICO.ruEconomicsExperts explained why the dollar is growing and what to expect from the exchange rate further

Experts explained why the dollar is growing and what to expect from the exchange rate further

NBU has set the rate at 27.23.

Ukrainian hryvnia began to depreciate sharply against the US dollar. The last time it was weaker back in July 2021, Chronicle.info reports with reference to Channel 24.

Hryvnia & # 171; entered & # 187; in 2021 at a rate of 28.27 hryvnia per dollar. On Thursday, December 2, the NBU set the rate at 27.23 .

Why the dollar is growing Military aggression

The Ukrainian hryvnia was slowly but surely strengthening until there was information about a possible full-scale war. US intelligence has revealed Russia's plans regarding a possible invasion of Ukraine , which could happen in early 2022.

Foreign investors began to leave the Ukrainian government bonds market en masse, thus devaluing the hryvnia. The situation was aggravated by the statement of President Volodymyr Zelensky on the possible coup.

In our opinion, the market is under pressure associated with the increased risk of military aggression in the east of the country. Most likely, the market was negatively affected by the statement of President Zelensky at a press conference about the coup, which is allegedly being prepared under the leadership of Rinat Akhmetov.

Evgenia Okhtyrko, Analyst at Concorde Capital
Currency demand

These developments have led to significant demand for foreign exchange. And according to the rules of the market, if the demand for something grows, then its price also grows.

  • In the second half of November, the outflow of foreign investors from the government bonds (securities) market amounted to 4.3 billion hryvnia.
  • The population panicked. According to the NBU, since the beginning of November, net purchases of foreign currency by the population have reached $ 200 million.

Speculators also joined the purchase of foreign currency. This behavior of buyers is caused by the active background of news around the risks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the coming months. Geopolitical tension creates strong pressure on all assets related to Ukraine, Eurobonds, corporate bonds.

Vitaliy Minko, Analyst and Director of the Forex Club in Lviv Even the NBU and IMF did not help the hryvnia:

  • To keep the hryvnia from collapse, the NBU intervened and began to sell the dollar from its reserves. The volume of interventions last week amounted to $ 630.1 million. This is the largest weekly volume of currency sales by the regulator since the beginning of the year.
  • Last week, the IMF provided Ukraine with a $ 699 million tranche. Usually, such news has a positive effect on the hryvnia exchange rate, since cooperation with the IMF is a sign of confidence in Ukraine. But this was not enough for investors to forget about the possible invasion of Russia.

Pay attention! Since the beginning of the year, the NBU bought $ 3.6 billion and sold $ 984.7 million dollars.

How long will the dollar grow

Anna Voluychak, director of the treasury department of Unex Bank, believes that in the near future the dollar will continue to grow. However, in her opinion, the potential for the growth of the dollar may soon be exhausted. If the situation at the border does not deteriorate, the exchange rate reversal may begin this week.

I think that it can be expected in the second half of the week. As soon as the growth of quotations stops, a significant amount of deferred supply will begin to put significant pressure on the dollar and lead to a dynamic strengthening of the hryvnia.

Anna Voluychak, Director of the Treasury Department of Unex Bank Forecasts of the dollar exchange rate in 2022

  • In draft budget-2022, the average annual dollar exchange rate was set at 28.6 hryvnia, and at the end of the year – 28.7 hryvnia per dollar.
  • A slightly more optimistic scenario is proposed by the IMF – the average annual dollar rate at 27.43 hryvnia.
  • At the same time, in the consensus forecast from the Ministry of Economy, analysts agreed on the following figures: the average dollar exchange rate in 2022 is 28.5 hryvnia, and as of the end of the year – 29 hryvnia.

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