On January 7, 2021, the world saw the new President Tokayev. The intelligent diplomat-reformer was replaced by a tough, domineering autocrat with a steel intonation in his voice and peremptory rhetoric. Addressing the nation on the fifth day of the most massive protests in the history of Kazakhstan, after which gigantic pogroms began in several cities of the country, Tokayev publicly allowed to shoot to kill those who do not fulfill the will of the security forces (all who took to the streets at once turned into «terrorists» , without dividing into peaceful demonstrators or aggressive rioters). In addition, the president accused independent media and human rights activists of “inciting” to the events, announced a “debriefing” for the security forces and announced that “20 thousand bandits” had attacked the city of Almaty alone.
Everything that was supposed to give out in the speech Tokayev's previous disposition to dialogue with society also looked like an affirmation of strength. The demands of peaceful protesters, as the authorities see them, have already been fulfilled, and for those regions that will more quickly submit to the new order, bonuses are provided such as early lifting of the state of emergency or turning on the Internet for a while. And then, Tokayev specifically clarified, the use of the Internet no longer implies «free inventions».
The harsh style of speech of the President of Kazakhstan can be explained by the circumstances in which it was delivered. Beginning on January 2, mass economic protests in Kazakhstan grew first into political demonstrations, and then, apparently, were replaced in several cities by pogroms with signs of a real civil war flaring up.
The situation became especially tense in Almaty, where clearly trained groups of people (the figure of 20 thousand is so amazing that even experts from state channels of Kazakhstan doubt it; however, it is quite obvious that there were many pogromists) seized and almost destroyed a number of objects of state power, including the administration the city, the prosecutor's office, the airport and the building of the National Security Committee. The Kazakh security forces and the military could not (or did not want) to cope with them for several days, and Tokayev called on the CSTO troops to help maintain order. As a result, the internal conflict turned into a big political problem for all its actors, including the foreign military who came at the call of Tokayev, the overwhelming majority of whom are Russian.
Russian CSTO peacekeeping forces on their way to the airport. Photo: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
At the same time, the harshness of the Kazakh president can also be explained by the fact that during these five days he practically completely destroyed the image of the «technical replacement» of the «Leader of the Nation» Nursultan Nazarbayev that haunted him. At the same time, Nazarbayev himself, as a political subject, is actually multiplied by zero at the moment. And although some commentators assessed Tokayev's speech as written «according to the Kremlin's training manual,» in fact, the president had no choice but to demonstrate all the strength that he has.
Would he be so tough if he did not feel the support of the allied peacekeeping contingent behind his back? Perhaps, yes, since people who know Tokayev describe him as a person with iron discipline and very principled. But now this peremptoryness also mixes up the future problem of the withdrawal of the CSTO troops from Kazakhstan: Tokayev himself is sure that all the military will leave after some time, but no one names the exact dates, and besides, Russia, through the State Duma deputies, is already throwing in absolutely provocative hints about that you don't mind staying in the republic.
In general, all these nearly ten days of Kazakhstani protest is a story in which there are still more questions than answers, and even those that already exist look either vague or implausible. Too many characters, too many plot twists, too many statements. «Novaya» tried to restore the full picture of what happened, while focusing on the most important unclear circumstances.
Phase one. Protests first
The main conspiracy version of Kazakhstani events is considered to be their planned nature: they say, the residents of Zhanaozen in the west of the country in the Mangistau region protested against the rise in prices for liquefied gas at someone's orders. But so far, everything indicates that the protest was initially absolutely spontaneous, and most importantly, it could have ended almost on the same day.
Over the past few years, Kazakhstanis have been rapidly becoming impoverished: against the background of a gradual fall in the tenge exchange rate and inflation comparable to Russian (official 7.5% in 2020), the already small salaries of residents of the republic began to melt before our eyes. Groceries were rapidly becoming more expensive in stores, and the cost of housing rose sharply in cities (including due to Tokayev's decision to allow withdrawing pension money for the purchase of real estate). In such conditions, any next price increase could become a trigger. The only question was where and when it would happen.
As luck would have it, from January 1, 2022, the sale of liquefied gas in the republic was supposed to go exclusively to electronic trading platforms, which, according to the developers of this trading structure, should have led to market regulation of prices. Later, Energy Minister Magzum Mirzagaliyev said that the cost of liquefied gas had been artificially lowered for many years to please social obligations, which, in particular, made it impossible to properly reconstruct gas processing plants. And this is true, but only part of it.
In fact, the gas industry in the republic is divided between people close to the first President Nursultan Nazarbayev — primarily the former son-in-law Timur Kulibayev and the businessman Kairat Sharipbayev (who is called the current son-in-law). And the market mechanism in such conditions could not work by default.
In addition, a price increase in a short period of time almost doubled in itself is a reason for dissatisfaction. And here, too, the product turned out to be too flammable material to start a protest.
On January 2, residents of the city of Zhanaozen in western Kazakhstan went to the building of the local administration — the akimat — demanding a sharp decrease in the price of gas. In autumn, gas cost 60 tenge per liter, on December 31 — 100 tenge per liter, and on January 1 it began to cost 120 tenge per liter (about 20 rubles). Residents of Zhanaozen have a long and tragic experience of protests: in 2011, after a seven-month boycott of oil workers due to low salaries, the authorities shot protesters right on the country's Independence Day on December 16 (only 17 people were officially killed). And gas is a doubly sensitive topic: most of all hydrocarbons in the republic are produced in the west of Kazakhstan, but the inhabitants of these regions paid for gas almost more than the rest of the country. They were ready to endure this, but the fact is that it is in the western regions that many motorists are refueled with gas (exact statistics are unknown, but approximately a quarter or even a third of families with their own cars are in question — many times more than the average for country). And for them, such an increase in prices is critical. True, the protesters, blocking the road, demanded to reduce the price in general to 50 tenge — that is, below the lowest.
Only the acting akim of the city Galym Baizhanov came out to the protesters, who said that the rest of the authorities were on vacation (not otherwise New Year), listened to the demands and instead of a human conversation immediately began to say that this meeting was illegal. Obviously, after that, the Zhanaozen residents went for the principle and decided not to leave the akimat building, and the whole Mangistau region showed solidarity with them at once, which was worn out by the events. The number of demonstrators began to grow and number in the hundreds.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for all two and a half years of his rule promoted the concept of a “hearing state” in society: that is, people's demands should not be ignored, but listened to and, if possible, resolved. In this case, Tokayev himself acted as a conductor of this “hearing state”, but did it somewhat awkwardly: he stated that “he instructed the government to urgently consider the situation in Zhanaozen, taking into account economic feasibility, in the legal field,” but he did it through his beloved personal twitter account in the middle of the night — but perhaps it was necessary to react earlier and offline. Nevertheless, this decision could become a turning point in the protest if adequate decisions followed. But it didn't happen.
The next morning, Energy Minister Magzum Mirzagaliyev announced that the price would not go down. But, realizing the effect of these words, the government in a few hours reduced the gas price for residents of the Mangistau region to 85–90 tenge per liter. The protest ranks took it as a mockery and refused to leave the squares.
Moreover, the geography of the protest began to grow: the Atyrau, West Kazakhstan and Aktobe regions, that is, the entire west of the country, began to join the Mangistau region. The authorities reacted to this by jamming the Internet in the center of Almaty (so that the local protest would not reach the state level at the expense of a large city). The demonstrators in Zhanaozen and Aktau demanded that Tokayev come to them personally, and all his «viziers» like the regional akim or the government commission were not perceived as negotiators. Nevertheless, following the results of a meeting of government officials who had flown in from Nur-Sultan with an initiative group (although, according to some sources, it included more deputies than people from the street), it was decided to satisfy the main demand of the protesters — to reduce prices for liquefied gas to 50 tenge per liter. But only for residents of the Mangystau region.
Shortly before this, President Tokayev tweeted: “The Commission has been instructed to find a mutually acceptable solution to the problem that has arisen in the interests of stability in our country. Law enforcement agencies have been instructed to ensure that public order is not violated. Demonstrators must show responsibility and a willingness to dialogue. » It was on the morning of January 4, and the obviously arrogant vocabulary, close to a threat, became, obviously, a mistake by the authorities. And 50 tenge per liter of liquefied gas for only one area — a solution that looked like a real detonator. The valves of the entire system began to fly out one by one.
First, the demands of the demonstrators changed from economic to political. From a big offense, the protesters now began to demand not a reduction in prices, but the resignation of the government, the resignation of Tokayev, and especially Nursultan Nazarbayev (not an imaginary resignation from office, but a complete disappearance from politics), the release of political prisoners and even the return of the 1993 Constitution. According to it, the presidential term is sharply limited, and the term «Elbasy» — «Leader of the nation» — does not exist at all.
Photo: Pavel Mikheyev/REUTERS
Secondly, the number of protesters themselves has increased significantly. Now these were far from only drivers, and far from only the west of the country took part in the protest. In the same Almaty, activists of opposition movements held several rallies (as a result of which many of them were detained). In Aktobe, a crowd of thousands occupied the central square in front of the regional akimat. In Uralsk, 500 people, gathered on the outskirts of the city, went to the center, breaking the police cordon five times along the way. As a result, by the end of the day there were from 2,000 to 5,000 people in the square in front of the regional akimat (as in Aktobe).
It is important to clarify that all these were so far peaceful actions, without violence from both sides. In addition, the protesters themselves made a fundamental decision to behave as correctly as possible, without provocations and without unnecessary reasons to increase the degree of confrontation. In particular, the leader of the rock group «Adaptation» Yermen «Anti» Yerzhanov, who visited the square in Aktobe on January 4, noted in an interview with Novaya's columnist Yan Shenkman that people deliberately leave behind brackets any national issue.
< p> “I was afraid and am afraid of nationalistic manifestations, so I specially drew attention to this: there are not only Kazakhs on the square, there are many Russians, everyone is friendly, no nationalism; God forbid, that it will not continue. The problem, due to which they got out, concerns everyone, all citizens of the country, — said Yerzhanov. — The point, of course, is not only about the gas, it was just the last straw. A protest was in the air, a match was brought up — and it flared. The last few months have seen a strong rise in prices, almost twofold, primarily for foodstuffs. Sunflower oil cost twice as much, eggs, potatoes, carrots. Even the middle class find it difficult to survive, and even more so for the poor, of whom we have a lot. They endured for a long time, and now they could not endure. There has never been such a thing as now in Kazakhstan. Everyone is madly tired of the fact that one person has been in power for so many years. This tiredness is simply felt physically. ”