US dollars. File photoMOSCOW, Jan 16The US Federal Reserve will fight monetary inflation by reducing the asset buyback program and raising the key rate, but the problems of disrupting production and logistics processes will remain, Dmitry Alexandrov, chief analyst at Univer Capital, told RIA Novosti. raising the key rate may happen as early as in March, and this is like an inevitable move against the backdrop of record inflation since the 80s. But there is a subtlety: inflation began to accelerate not only due to a sharp increase in the money supply in circulation, but also due to a serious violation in production and logistics processes caused by lockdowns and trade wars,» Aleksandrov says.Russia has passed the peak of inflation, Siluanov said. According to the US Department of Labor, annual inflation in the country accelerated to 7% last year from 6.8% in November, and consumer prices rose by 0.5% in December alone. Thus, inflation in the US is even closer to its maximum value in almost 40 years. According to the results of June 1982, it was 7.2%. The expert notes that the world economy, operating in the mode of maximum efficiency, is not accustomed to forming large reserves (they just reduce efficiency, but increase stability), and therefore even small disruptions led to the accumulation problems. As a result, we see a shortage of various goods and a sharp struggle for them between different sectors of the economy in a world that has already begun to forget the concept of shortage as such (chips, high-tech and the auto industry are among the brightest examples). «It would seem that a shortage can always be answered with a sharp increasing production by building the right number of enterprises on cheap loans. However, trade conflicts and the pandemic have significantly reduced the confidence of manufacturers and the desire to invest, and a significant increase in the Fed rate, and therefore the cost of credit around the world, could complicate the situation even more, «comments expert. Aleksandrov concludes that even if the Fed succeeds by raising the rate by suppressing inflation on the demand side, the second side of inflation associated with a supply shortage may remain with us until global production and logistics processes normalize or restructure to reflect new political realities.
Inflation in Russia was 8.39% in 2021
