Nursultan Nazarbayev finally appeared in public to announce himself a pensioner on a well-deserved rest. Photo: RIA Novosti
More than two weeks after the start of the most massive protests in the history of Kazakhstan, after which riots began with hundreds of victims, the country's first president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who has the status of Elbasy — that is, the Leader nation, — I decided to speak with this nation. Prior to this, for several days in a row, his closest relatives were consistently deprived of their posts in key sectors of the economy and law enforcement agencies. Nazarbayev himself was silent all this time — which gave rise to rumors about his severe ill health and, possibly, even death.
After all, it could not be that Elbasy would leave his own! Something is definitely wrong with him!
In fact, the version that Nazarbayev is in the capital, but at the same time he does not feel very well, was voiced even by pro-government experts in Kazakhstan — in particular, the former adviser of the same Nazarbayev, Yermukhamet Yertysbayev. It’s just that no one wanted to believe in it: the story that the main person in the country (as of January 2, 2022) will sit back and be silent all the time while his citizens are dying on the streets looks even more shameful than fleeing the country together with relatives. And now Nazarbayev is back. He returned to say: do not touch me, I am a pensioner, all questions to President Tokayev, rally around him.
< p> The appeal itself takes a little less than five minutes (in two languages), Nazarbayev looks tired in the frame, but certainly not dying.
Some people think that the appeal is a «canned», recorded in advance, but this is not very similar.
All this small statement was conceived, first of all, in order to respond to foreign newspaper materials about the big conflict between Nazarbayev and Tokayev — in particular, The Guardian wrote about this, citing sources. But in parallel, it happened, Elbasy gave several multidirectional signals to both ordinary people and his closest associates. And for people, the message is simple: bribes are smooth from me, the president has all the powers, ask for shooting and blood from him. In the literal sense, “I don’t touch anyone, I fix the Primus”. But with the message to the elite it is more difficult: the very public appearance of Nazarbayev, who was not at all embarrassed for a second that he is now the most cursed figure in the country, suggests that the question of who will be in the country at the top of power is still not resolved.
Here it is important to understand one thing: Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is in captivity of the legal traps of the legislation of Kazakhstan. The republic still has a law on the first president of the Republic of Kazakhstan — and even taking into account the fact that Tokayev has already intercepted the post of head of the Security Council and the head of the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, and will soon take the post of head of the presidential Nur Otan party, a lot still depends on Nazarbayev . For example:
- Nursultan Nazarbayev has the right to address the people of Kazakhstan, state bodies and officials with initiatives on the most important issues of state building, domestic and foreign policy and security of the country, which are subject to mandatory consideration by the relevant state bodies and officials;
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- the initiatives being developed in the main directions of the domestic and foreign policy of the state are agreed with Nazarbayev;
- obstruction of the lawful activities of the first president, public insult or other infringement of his honor and dignity, as well as desecration of Nazarbayev's images are punishable by law;
- Nazarbayev has immunity, that is, he cannot be held accountable for actions committed during the period of his exercising the powers of the president, and after their termination, related to the exercise of his status as Elbasy. He cannot be detained, arrested and held in custody, searched, interrogated or personally searched;
- inviolability also extends to all property owned by Nazarbayev and cohabiting with him to his family members, as well as to the residential and office premises used by them, official vehicles, means of communication, correspondence, documents belonging to them.
The points already listed (and there are much more) are enough so that Tokayev could always consider himself second. And the meaning of all hypotheses about intra-elite battles, from which Tokayev emerged as an obvious leader, just boiled down to the fact that this was a victory «by concept.» But it has not been formalized legally, so any actions of the second president can be challenged at any moment.