Stacks of ten-ruble coins on the screen with stock charts. File photoMOSCOW, Jan 21Investor uncertainty, macroeconomic changes, a black swan and a lack of trust between market agents are the main signs of an impending significant collapse of the markets, which can be called an exchange cataclysm, Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at the Otkritie Investments global research department, said in an interview with the Prime agency. Expert I advised you to first pay attention to the technical analysis of the market. «If the chart is steadily and constantly growing, periodically falling or rising, then this is an uptrend. But if the chart «marks time» for a long period, its peaks of decline and growth increase, that is, they begin sharp fluctuations in indices or stock prices, which means that a period of market fatigue has set in. There are no longer so many people who want to exclusively buy, and, accordingly, the number of sellers grows. Once the critical mass of the number of sellers reaches a certain value, the market turns down and may keep moving quite seriously,» Kochetkov shared. A «healthy» correction, according to him, can be considered a decrease in the range of 10-12 percent.The analyst named new stocks on the stock exchange that must be bought. In addition, the market is sensitive to macroeconomic changes, for example, an increase in the key rate of the regulator. Unforeseen events can also happen, the so-called «black swans», which bring with them panic and fear. The interlocutor of the agency recalled the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 as an example. “People do not understand what to expect and go into protective assets — either in cash, or in highly liquid bonds, or in gold,” the analyst says. And, in his opinion, under such conditions, the market can collapse by more than 20 percent, and then go down by another 10-15 percent. Another negative sign is the loss of trust between market agents and the refusal to lend money. This leads to the fact that the amount of money in the market and the number of buyers decreases sharply. There are problems with providing borrowed funds for those who traded in the market with leverage. They are forced to exit their positions en masse, Kochetkov concluded.
