Russian peacekeepers at a checkpoint. File photoMOSCOW, Jan 22The blockade of Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria today cannot become a reason for a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, since such a scenario is unrealizable due to the gas crisis in Moldova, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov told RIA Novosti. Previously, he expressed the opinion that One of the main reasons why Moscow could enter into a direct military conflict with Kiev could be the blockade of Transnistria, an unrecognized republic «sandwiched» between Moldova and Ukraine. Since 1992, Russian peacekeepers have been based there, and many residents of the region have Russian citizenship.Pushkov came up with a way to punish Moldova for Sandu's hostile remarks In January, the Moldovagaz company faced difficulties in repaying the next payment to Gazprom, as the purchase price of gas rose from 450 to 646 dollars per thousand cubic meters. The parliament of the republic introduced a state of emergency for 60 days to resolve the problem. It is expected that from February 1, the gas tariff may increase by 30%.
"Ukraine could put pressure on Russia by organizing a blockade of Transnistria, but now the Russian Federation, using gas "levers" in relation to Moldova, makes such a scenario simply impossible. Therefore, I believe that the likelihood of war today is much lower than it was in the same autumn", Sivkov said.
At the same time, the expert noted that the Transnistrian scenario of the conflict between Moscow and Kiev would be even more likely than a large-scale escalation in the Donbas, since, in his opinion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have to abandon their main forces to seize the unrecognized republics in the South-East of the country, leaving the rest defenseless territory of Ukraine.
Sandu believes that Russia prevented Moldova from gaining independence from the USSR «This (a massive offensive in the Donbass — ed.) would mean the emergence of a new «Stalingrad» near Donetsk, that is, the main forces of the Ukrainian army would be forced to engage in hostilities in the Donbass, while how Russia will freely march into Ukraine, forming a cauldron for the Ukrainian group in the East. Thus, it will be captured or destroyed. Kiev understands this and does not want such a scenario,» Sivkov explained. the successor to the 14th Combined Arms Army, which, after the collapse of the USSR, was transferred under the jurisdiction of Russia. Its main tasks are a peacekeeping mission and the protection of ammunition depots. Transnistria, 60% of whose inhabitants are Russians and Ukrainians, sought secession from Moldova even before the collapse of the USSR, fearing that Moldova would join Romania on the wave of nationalism. In 1992, after a failed attempt by the Moldovan authorities to solve the problem by force, Transnistria became virtually a territory not controlled by Chisinau. gas crisis