The national currency has already depreciated by 4% since the beginning of the year.
After a rapid growth in December and in the first half of January, the dollar exchange rate has somewhat stabilized. But at the same time, the pressure on the hryvnia remains high, reports the Chronicle.info with reference to Channel 24.
On Tuesday, January 25, the NBU set the official dollar exchange rate at 28.37 hryvnia< /strong>. Since the beginning of the year, the national currency has already depreciated by 4%.
Why the dollar is growing
Non-residents continue to leave the Ukrainian market: they buy foreign currency in large volumes, which put pressure on the hryvnia. Only on Monday and Tuesday, to balance supply and demand, the NBU sold about $300 million on the interbank market.
The level of tension in the market eased on Friday after talks between US Secretary of State Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and a rather positive tone of their statements, said ICU analyst Taras Kotovich. However, already this week there were reasons for excitement.
Deterioration of the background of news about the possible aggression of the Russian Federation, information about the evacuation of the families of US diplomats, and consideration of the possible evacuation of other embassies, as well as statements to refrain from visiting Ukraine and the Russian Federation, give an impetus to foreign investors to resume exit from Ukraine.
Vitaliy Minko, Analyst and Director of the Forex Club in Lviv
Pay attention! Since the beginning of the year, the government bonds portfolio held by non-residents has decreased by UAH 8.3 billion, and the pace of its decline continues .
What to expect from this week's exchange rate
This week the dollar exchange rate will be influenced by 2 main factors:
Russian aggression
The threat of a full-scale invasion from Russia will continue to create nervousness in the market, which will negatively affect the Ukrainian hryvnia. Already on Monday, the hryvnia depreciated due to news about the departure of diplomats from different countries from Ukraine.
However, this is not the main factor in the growth of quotations so far. On Friday, the State Treasury transferred to exporters a fairly large tranche of VAT refunds — UAH 1.8 billion. And this week, the pressure on the hryvnia from this factor will remain relevant.
Anna Zolotko, Director of the Treasury Operations Department of Unex Bank
Payment of taxes
The hryvnia will be supported this week by the increased demand for free hryvnia liquidity from businesses, which must pay taxes by the end of the week.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for January 29
The balance of these two factors gives reason to predict a moderate growth of the dollar exchange rate by this week. But periods of hryvnia strengthening are also quite likely. Over the past two weeks, a fairly significant volume of deferred supply has formed on the market, which can have a significant impact on the exchange rate trajectory.
- Anna Zolotko believes that trading this week will be very volatile, very significant exchange rate fluctuations are likely even within one session. At the same time, the rate will be within 28.15 — 28.65 hryvnia per dollar.
- After a short stabilization, the hryvnia will continue to weaken, tending to the maximum levels of the current year zone 28.50 — 28.60 hryvnia per dollar , forecast Vitaly Minko.