In negotiations with the US and NATO, where Ukraine is part of the problem, opposing lines are fighting. On the one hand, a «paper» official US response to Russian projects for a new structure of European security has been received. You can delve into details, expand packages, form new packages from their parts, and so on. » />
Photo: EPA
Putin got his way: the partners, who had not seen him point-blank in recent years, agreed to talk. At the same time, the parties put pressure on each other in all possible ways, grabbing whatever comes to hand. It was announced that the Russian ambassador would leave the United States in April — the scandal over diplomatic quotas and visas does not subside and has not received any positive direction. The communist dummy of the opposition came to life in the State Duma and demanded to recognize the rebellious republics of Donbass. There have been a number of developments that indicate attempts to reduce tensions. But at the same time, the escalation game continued.
After the New Year holidays, one after another, NATO and US military transports with weapons land at Ukrainian airfields. So far, pumping weapons into a conflict region has not been considered a way to strengthen peace.
In response, United Russia, represented by Turchak and Vasiliev, asked Putin to start supplying weapons to strengthen the defense of the rebels in the DPR-LPR.
It is clear that in the most acute foreign policy crisis these people follow orders. They cannot show any initiative.
In general, the footage of the transports landing in Boryspil, stuffed with the most modern missile systems and ammunition, got through to many in Russia. One day the steam engine of our propaganda rumbled on all cylinders. The head of the «DPR» complained about the transfer of Ukrainian troops to the confrontation line. The head of the «LPR» said that he was ready for anything. Nikonov, Dzhabarov and other authorized persons immediately shot back in the Duma and the Federation Council. Political talk shows were off the chain by the evening — it's time to help!
At the same time, all commentators from the Russian side proceed from the hypothesis that only Kiev can make the “first shot”, and nothing else. Russia, and even more so the rebels, allegedly cannot have any aggressive intentions in principle.
What do all these maneuvers mean from a purely military point of view? All sources with experience in command and intelligence with whom we managed to talk about the likely supply of Russian weapons to the Donbass found similar reasons.
We are talking about a possible military-political configuration in the region,
if negotiations with the United States end up with something significant.
The package of sanctions in the event of a Russian invasion, which hundreds of foreign officials and parliamentarians have spoken about, looks impressive. It is possible that Russia can secretly give a guarantee that it will not attack Ukraine. However, Western governments may consider reports of their intelligence even about actions at the company level as a sign of an invasion.
Russia, in this hypothetical scenario, will only be able to strike long-range systems at previously reconnoitered targets from its territory. And preferably on a cloudy day, when US intelligence satellites do not fix the launch sites and gaps. And in the intervals between regular flights of US reconnaissance aircraft in Ukraine.
Thus, if the situation in the Donbass escalates (whoever aggravates it), our army will have to refrain. For the military, such agreements are an innovation. The fact is that until now the whole balance rests on a simple scenario: two army corps of the “DPR” and “LPR” should delay the strategic offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a short time until it becomes clear to the whole world who invaded whom, and wait for the entry into the operation of the Russian army units.
These corps, with a total strength of 32,000 (the most common estimate), are opposed by motivated units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from 90,000 to 100,000 fighters in the configuration of an attacking group on a front line of more than 400 kilometers. The shortage in the infantry of the rebels sometimes reaches 40%.
The army corps in their current state are unlikely to be able to conduct an independent long-term defensive operation that will lead to unacceptable losses of the Armed Forces. The advantage in tanks, artillery and ammunition is significant. They were completed at one time from Russian warehouses, as well as Ukrainian equipment captured in the Crimea and in the battles of 2014-2015. The repair is done. But this is old equipment, with the exception of some anti-tank systems and, to some extent, drones.
The advantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is gradually and inexorably accumulating, and the engine life of the DPR tanks is coming to an end. Yes, if the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine embarks on an adventure and launches an offensive along the entire front today, the losses of the Ukrainians will be very heavy. But serious questions arise in connection with the latest deliveries of Western weapons.