Due to increased aggression from Russia, European countries have started looking for alternative sources of gas.
The EU is pinning its hopes on the US, Qatar and Azerbaijan. «Nord Stream-2» at the same time, they can freeze, reports the Chronicle.info with reference to RBC-Ukraine.
«Nord Stream-2» has never been a purely economic project, no matter how hard German politicians and their Russian colleagues try to prove the opposite. Ukraine initially insisted and assured Western partners that the launch of the pipeline would not only hit its revenues from gas transit to Europe, but also make the country more vulnerable in terms of security to the Russian Federation.
Having a hand in the gas crisis of recent months and deploying troops near the border of Ukraine, the Russian side has only increased the tension. The Russian Federation once again confirmed that economic blackmail and an aggressive foreign policy are inalienable attributes of the Kremlin's power. Which ultimately may determine the fate of SP-2.
The gas pipeline has been completed for several months and even filled with gas. However, its launch is not possible until the certification of the pipeline operator, as required by European law. Certification suspended due to technical reasons. The resumption of the procedure largely depends on the political situation.
Western politicians are increasingly recalling «Nord Stream-2» in the context of possible sanctions against the Russian Federation, as one of the levers of pressure on the Kremlin for aggression against Ukraine. The project must be completely stopped if Russia invades Ukraine, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the day before. A few days earlier, the same thesis was voiced by the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Yves Le Drian.
Germany, previously loyal to Moscow in matters of «Nord Stream-2», after the change of government and the escalation near the borders of Ukraine, began to take a tougher stance. «In the event of a new aggression, we have a wide range of responses, including responses to «Nord Stream-2», said German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock, speaking to the Bundestag deputies last week.
Until Russia moves from threats of invasion to action, Germany's regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur — the Federal Network Agency — is working by the rules. Back in November, the agency suspended the certification of SP-2 until the completion of «Gazprom» some conditions. We are talking about the creation of a separate company — the operator of SP-2, as required by law. And formally, at the end of January, the Russian Federation fulfilled it, announcing the launch of Gas for Europe GmbH (GfE).
Russia went for the trick
The new operator company will own and manage the 54-kilometer a gas pipeline section in German territorial waters, as well as a site for onshore facilities in the city of Lubmin.
«The company was founded to enforce the German Energy Law (EnWG), which translates the EU gas directive into German law. The focus of the new company, when launched, will be to advance the certification process as an independent transmission operator in coordination with the Bundesnetzagentur», the GfE said in a statement.
BNetzA certification began on September 8 and was supposed to last four months, but in mid-November it was suspended. Now, after the creation of a new company, the process should be resumed. Only before GfE needs to submit to the regulator a package of documents necessary for this.
If the procedure is continued in the near future, the Bundesnetzagentur may issue its conclusion by mid-March or April. After that, the decision must be agreed with the German government and sent to the European Commission, which within two months (possibly extending up to 4 months) must confirm the certification.
If we follow the schedule and go strictly according to the procedure, the launch of the gas pipeline could theoretically take place in early summer. But BNetzA itself does not rule out that the deadlines will be delayed.
«Decision on certification of the gas pipeline operator «Nord Stream-2″ is unlikely to be adopted before the end of June, despite the establishment of a subsidiary in Germany by Nord Stream 2 AG,” said Jochen Homann, head of the regulator, the other day. He noted that the necessary documents have not yet been received from GfE.
If there are no questions about the papers, then the regulator may make a positive decision, since «Gazprom» formally complied with the terms of German law. But the European Commission is unlikely to be able to agree on certification, since the functions of gas supply and transportation are not completely separated.
The fact is that the GfE operator will manage only a part of the gas pipeline 54 km out of the total 1234 km (two strings 2468 km). The rest of the «pipe» remains under the control of «Gazprom», which is both a supplier and actually controls the transportation company. By the way, the CEO of «Gazprom Export» Elena Burmistrova.
The creation of an operator in this form is a ploy on the part of Russia to circumvent the conditions of European law. Last year, US State Department senior energy adviser Amos Hochstein assured that the United States and Germany discussed the inadmissibility of such an option.
Manipulation and attempt to blackmail Europe
Ukraine is seen as a clear violation by «Gazprom» in this matter. Head of NAK «Naftogaz » Yuri Vitrenko called the creation of an operator for only part of the gas pipeline «manipulation» on the part of Russia, the desire to be above the law and continue to blackmail Europe with gas.
Klaus-Dieter Borchardt, Director General of the European Commission for Energy Affairs, as Vitrenko recalled, had previously warned: «If Gazprom remains the owner of part «Nord Stream-2″ from the Russian coast to the point of entry into German territorial waters, and another company owns the last 54 kilometers, this can be considered as a circumvention of the rules about unbundling».
The NAC hopes that the regulator and the German government still «will not allow Putin to arrange legal tricks» and disregard European norms and laws. Especially in the context of a possible increase in aggression on the part of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. Not to mention what «permission» clearly does not fit into the general rhetoric of Western countries warning the Russian Federation of tough sanctions.
To date, certification cannot be completed, since the SP-2 gas pipeline does not comply with the EU gas directive in terms of unbundling, the director of energy programs agrees &# 171;Razumkov Center» Vladimir Omelchenko.
«In this case, the ultimate owner of both the operator and the supplier is the same — «Gazprom». The Russian side understands this very well and is trying to push through certification by non-legal methods — by shrinking the gas market in conditions of a large gas shortage. Moscow expects that the FRG will not withstand this unprecedented pressure and the regulator will give the go-ahead, despite the obvious violation of the laws of the EU and the FRG,», Omelchenko believes.
Gas stocks in EU storage facilities are indeed declining. According to the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, this deficit is largely due to «Gazprom». «Approximately half of this deficit is due to the low level of stocks at the company's facilities in the EU, although it controls only 10 percent of the total UGS facilities in the EU», Birol explained.
Official Berlin, according to Omelchenko, put himself in almost complete energy dependence on the Kremlin. And this situation may be reflected in the issue of certification of SP-2 by the German regulator, the expert believes.
«In chess, this position is called zugzwang. For Germany, this situation is doubly insulting due to the fact that the previous political leadership, headed by Merkel, independently created colossal energy security problems for their country. Whether the German regulator will be able to comply with the law under such conditions is unclear», he said.
Even if the regulator approves the certification, the European Commission is unlikely to confirm such a decision due to a serious disagreement over the need for a new gas pipeline between EU members, Omelchenko believes. Latvia, Lithuania and Poland actively oppose the launch of the facility. And earlier concerns about SP-2 were expressed by Denmark, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Croatia. The politically aggressive position of the Russian Federation towards Ukraine can only exacerbate disagreements in the EU on the advisability of launching a joint venture.
Europe is looking for an alternative
Europe is already looking for an alternative to gas supplies from Russia. In the EU, supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA have increased. According to EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, negotiations are also underway with Qatar and Azerbaijan.
«We intend to work together, in close cooperation with EU member states, on the supply of LNG to ensure supply security and contingency planning», US President Joe Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a joint statement.
It is planned to discuss in detail the issue of cooperation in the energy sector on February 7 at a meeting of the US-EU Energy Council. According to the publication, representatives of Ukraine will not take part in the forum, but Kiev is engaged in an active dialogue on the energy topic, both with the US and the EU.
The Ukrainian government urges to remain calm and convinces that the current heating the season will run smoothly. «Naftogaz» plans to start importing gas from Europe in February. But due to the high cost and lack of funds, the volumes of injection will be quite small.
Where and how they are going to buy gas for the next winter, the Cabinet of Ministers and the NAC have not yet said. But it is already clear that there will be no significant reduction in energy prices. First of all, because of the reluctance of «Gazprom» increase gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine, as well as in connection with the vague prospects for SP-2.
If the EU finds alternative ways to supply gas, its prices will also remain quite high due to logistics level. According to the IMF, in 2022 the cost of gas in the world will increase by 58%.