Over the past year, 2.4 million people died in Russia, Rosstat reported. And one in four deaths was likely related to the coronavirus. In some regions of Central Russia, every 50th inhabitant died. There has never been such a number of deaths and such a decline in the population in the modern history of Russia. It was worse only during the Great Patriotic War.
The natural population decline in Russia (death rate minus birth rate) in 2021 reached 1.04 million people. This is also an anti-record. So the population of the country did not thin out either in the difficult 1990s or in the early 2000s. Now less than 145.5 million people live in Russia.
The last year hit Central Russia especially hard. Records of natural loss were set by the Ryazan, Novgorod, Tula regions. More than 2% of the population died in them. This is one of 50 people. The Vladimir, Smolensk, Tver, Tambov, and Pskov regions follow them in terms of natural loss. If in the pre-pandemic 2019 the population decline in these regions was 0.7–0.8% per year, then in 2021 it doubled to 1.4–1.5% per year.
Due to the over-centralization of the economy and management, Central Russia is emptying especially quickly. Since the beginning of 2000, when the country was headed by Vladimir Putin, in the Pskov, Arkhangelsk, Kirov, Tambov, Tver regions, the number of inhabitants has decreased by one-fifth — by 20-23%. Even a large region — the Nizhny Novgorod region — lost 13% of its inhabitants.
How the population of Russia has changed
ChukMagMurKomiKamShlnArhEvrPskKurgAmurTverTamKirIvaKarTulKosNovgSmolBryaZabHabMorVlaOrolRyazPriKurskPenKalmNizhYaroKemVoloIrkPerUlNenAlt.kSarOmskSahaMariSverOrenChuvKrasLipUdmVorChelHakKaluVolgBurRosSamTomAstNovoBshkAdygTatTyvaOsetSpbBelTyumKaraLenYamalStavKabMosAltKaliKrdrHanChechMskDagIngKrymSevV percent by 2000-31,9-16,2-10,1-4,80% 0,15,81630,154,1 2000 
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Source: Rosstat
In addition, Russians continue to leave the Magadan region, Komi, Kurgan, Murmansk regions. “And now, as I see it, the most depressive region in terms of outflow of population, in addition to the regions around Moscow and the Far Eastern Federal District, has become the Volga region: Saratov, Volgograd regions,” says demographer Alexei Raksha.
In fact, only covid accelerated the depopulation of the regions of Central Russia. But it’s not that they somehow coped particularly badly with the pandemic. The point is the age structure of the population, explains Alexei Raksha.
“From those regions that are not lucky enough to be near St. Petersburg or Moscow, young people leave for decades, even centuries. That is, the proportion of the young population in them is reduced, and the proportion of the elderly is increased. In these regions, even without covid, the death rate is the highest in the country per capita. And now the coronavirus has appeared, which still hits older people more, so the overall mortality rate is growing stronger,” says Alexey Raksha.
The second reason for the depopulation of a significant part of the country: since 2018, Russia has entered a period of a long demographic decline. It's an echo of the 1990s. People from the small generation born in those years approached the childbearing age. Last year, the birth rate exceeded the death rate in only 11 regions. These are the four republics of the North Caucasus, the Tyumen region with its autonomous districts, the Nenets Autonomous District as part of the Arkhangelsk region, as well as Altai, Yakutia and Tyva.
The authorities regularly set goals to increase life expectancy and reduce mortality. Amendments on affordable medical care were even introduced in 2020 to the Constitution. However, in fact, they plan to reduce healthcare spending.
Failure of the fight against covid
In March 2020, right before the start of the pandemic, Rosstat published its population forecast for Russia up to 2036. Judging by it, the number of inhabitants of the country in 2021 should have decreased, but not by a million, but by 375 thousand people (excluding migration). COVID-19 has adjusted forecasts.
In fact, the cost of the pandemic for Russia last year alone was almost 670,000 people. This is comparable to the population of Tolyatti or Izhevsk.
The estimates of Alexey Raksha and Dmitry Kobak, a data analyst from the University of Tübingen (Germany), are close to the same figure. Independently of each other, they estimated the excess mortality last year in Russia at 660-680 thousand people. And in just two years, due to the pandemic, the death rate increased by more than a million people.
What about in the West? And what about in the West?
Ingushetia, Chechnya, Dagestan, the Orenburg region no wonder, Moscow. In them, excess mortality turned out to be 40–58% higher than the pre-COVID annual level, Aleksey Raksha calculated. Almost 83,000 excess deaths have been registered in the capital alone since April 2020.
Even external migration cannot make up for such a population decline. According to preliminary data, 350,000 more people came to Russia last year than those who left. But even taking into account migration, the country's population has decreased by almost 700 thousand people over the year.
Infographics: Artem Shchennikov
Editor: Arnold Khachaturov