The President of Armenia, who has been in office since 2018, suddenly resigned at the end of January. He himself explained this decision by a lack of authority, but at the same time he was found to have a second citizenship — a passport of Saint Kitts and Nevis. Former Armenian Ambassador to Russia, political scientist Stepan Grigoryan outlines his vision of what is happening with the young Armenian democracy. =»» />
Stepan Grigoryan. Photos from social networks
— How unexpected was the resignation of President Armen Sarkissian for you personally?
— The resignation was so unexpected that the Prime Minister of Armenia did not know about it in advance. Before the resignation, there was no talk about it. It all happened unexpectedly.
Is the lack of authority the real reason for his departure? Didn't he, agreeing to this job, know that in parliamentary Armenia the position of president does not imply special powers?
— From conversations with people who have good relations with Sargsyan, who discussed this topic with him, I know that when he gave his consent to Serzh Sargsyan (the previous president of Armenia. — I.T.), there were verbal agreements between them. This is accepted in countries like ours: not only something within the law, but also verbal agreements. And I have an assumption that the oral part of the agreements concerned that the president would attract investments to Armenia and partially engage in foreign policy activities.
— He worked with Nikol Pashinyan for almost four years. Do you think the agreements were maintained?
— No, there were no such agreements with Pashinyan. Moreover, I know that the president's initiatives were quite severely blocked by the prime minister's team. This is a young, ambitious team, it came in the wake of the revolution. Ambitious because
the revolution gave these people a very high legitimacy. And today we see how they answer many questions: “What do you want from us? We are legitimate, we can do what we want.”
Unfortunately, this team does not have the understanding that the government should be accountable. And, unfortunately, they gain experience with difficulty.
— When we met in 2020, you were much more a supporter of the Pashinyan government, you have there is a book about the “velvet revolution” of 2018. What made you change your mind?
— I want you to clearly understand my attitude towards what is happening in Armenia. I still think that the government should help. And of course, we, the expert community, help in any way we can. And I still want them to succeed. But I must admit that it is not very clear to me how Nikol Pashinyan selected people for his team. I'll give you an example. We discuss the situation with a deputy from the ruling party, and he tells me: “Azerbaijan has a thousand tanks, Turkey has ten thousand, and we have only three hundred, it follows that we must give them everything they want.” Do you know how many tanks are in Luxembourg? Zero. A calm, normal life is provided for them by a balance between France and Germany. It turns out that with a normal foreign policy, with the right balance of power, you can live without tanks at all.
Such a primitive perception of reality, which I see in many Armenian politicians, is amazing.
Protests in Yerevan. April, 2018 Photo: Arik Erhan/NARphotos/ABACAPRESS.COM
— In your opinion, what did Sargsyan really miss?
— He did not have the courage to continue working, to enter into a tougher confrontation with Nikol Pashinyan. After the defeat in the 2020 war, he joined the voices, which included the Armenian Church, the Yerevan State University, and the Academy of Sciences, in the tough opposition that then demanded Pashinyan's resignation. Now he didn't have the courage. He could stay in Armenia, calmly resign and continue to fight with what he disagrees with, and not send his resignation from London. He first went to London, and from there he announced his resignation.
— Was the resignation voluntary or did Pashinyan somehow push the president towards it?
— I think that Pashinyan made a decision about Armen Sargsyan after the war, when the president joined in criticizing the government. I think he already knew then that he would get rid of this president. Moreover, Pashinyan has no problems doing this. That is, he cannot simply dismiss the president, for this a very high threshold has been set in parliament — 75% of the votes, while Pashinyan now has only 67%. But he could ruin Sargsyan's life.
You probably know that before his resignation, it was discovered that Armen Sargsyan had not only the citizenship of Armenia, not only the citizenship of Great Britain, which he, as he himself said, renounced in 2011, but also the passport of the small Caribbean country of Saint Kitts and Nevis . Perhaps it was a situational decision, perhaps he negotiated some projects there. But it seems that he did not formally leave this citizenship.
— Do such things turn out by chance in the fourth year of the presidency?
“Perhaps the government knew about this, and now they put this fact on the table for the president when it's time to remove him. Usually this is how it is done: when you need to offer a friend to leave, they just bring it and put it down.
— Why is now the time? How did the president suddenly interfere with Pashinyan?
— As I understand it,
Pashinyan is ready to make serious concessions both on the Karabakh issue and on the issue of Armenian-Turkish relations. And if it was about the need to make peace with the neighbors, I would only support him. But here the question is: what is the price?
As I understand it, the Armenian government intends to agree that Karabakh, to one degree or another, remain part of Azerbaijan. At a recent press conference, Pashinyan explained to us for a long time that the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is serious, that the whole world recognizes Karabakh as Azerbaijani. The OSCE Minsk Group has been operating for 30 years, which should determine the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, and now we learn that the world supposedly recognizes Karabakh as Azerbaijani!
As for the Armenian-Turkish relations, Pashinyan is ready to stop peddling the issue of the Armenian genocide. That is, he does not say that Armenia generally refuses to discuss this topic, but, according to him, the diaspora, not the government, should deal with the problem. And he promises to unilaterally open the road to Nakhichevan so that Turkey unites with Azerbaijan. All three decisions are very unpopular in Armenia.
— It is very radical to immediately abandon the demands for recognition of the genocide, and recognize Karabakh as Azerbaijani, and allow Azerbaijan to unite with Turkey.
— And this will definitely be perceived in Armenia sharply negatively. After such decisions, Pashinyan may have problems within the country, his situation may become much more complicated. Understanding this, he wants to concentrate all important institutions in his hands. Among other things, he needs a person loyal to him to hold the presidency.
— Pashinyan is going to do exactly what he himself accused the previous authorities of Armenia, against which he seemed to be fighting in 2018.
— In 2018, we supported Nikol Pashinyan because he symbolized the transition to democracy in Armenia, he promised us this. And during the three years of his reign, for example, I could not find fault with him in this regard. Yes, among his decisions were complex and non-standard, problems arose on the path to democracy. But he still did not make systemic mistakes.
— Yes?
— In relation to democracy, he did not.
Nikol Pashinyan. Photo: Vlad Dokshin/»Novaya»
— Just from this side, claims have already arisen against him. When, for example, he maintained martial law after the war, banning opposition rallies in Yerevan. Or when he severely suppressed her performances.
“I must regret to tell you that it was precisely in this that he acted too softly. And made a lot of mistakes. For example, in Armenia we all know who is a thief here, who is not a thief, we have a small country. Under Pashinyan, thieves and corrupt officials began to be caught. But how clumsy! For example, in September, October and November 2021, we had local elections throughout Armenia. They passed quite honestly, no complaints were filed. But you in Russia know who wins in local elections: either the ruling party or the authorities who have money. And then the same thing happened: either people from Pashinyan's party won, or local authorities, some of whom are associated with the radical opposition. And after the elections they began to be arrested. The arrests themselves were correct, it should have been done a long time ago. But why did these criminal cases appear only after these people defeated the representatives of Pashinyan's party in the elections?
— And someone asks Pashinyan such a question?
— Many ask. Although my questions to him really began to arise after all from the moment when it became clear that he was taking the presidency into his own hands. Although the president is a weak figure according to our Constitution, it is still a partial counterbalance to the prime minister. Now Pashinyan will lead his man to this place. That is, he will not be able to do it the first time, but in the second round, anyone who the government wants will pass in the parliament. This is bad for democracy, the whole system of checks and balances is violated, and we already have few of them.
— When did you realize that this was happening in Armenia?
— I finally understood this at the moment when the ombudsman changed. We have a very strong institution, the Ombudsman of Armenia has a huge staff, more than a hundred people, according to the Constitution it is forbidden to reduce his budget. Arman Tatoyan worked very successfully, but often criticized the authorities. In December last year, another candidate was nominated for a second term, a new Ombudsman has already been chosen. That is, the authorities took over this institution as well. And this means that authoritarian tendencies in our government have begun to manifest themselves in earnest, which causes me very serious concern.