A worker at a gas storage facility in Rehden, GermanyMOSCOW, Mar 13Gas futures prices in Europe are unstable, the direction of their movement in the coming days and even hours is difficult to predict, they may exceed the record $4,000 per thousand cubic meters in the near future, analysts interviewed by RIA Novosti said. gas prices to new record levels. This can happen both in the coming hours and in the coming weeks, «VYGON Consulting research director Maria Belova said earlier. Will it exceed $4,000? dollars per thousand cubic meters and several times updated historical highs. Then the quotes crept up to the mark of $4,000, but never reached it — they stopped at the level of $3,892. The cost was four times higher than the average price of gas futures in February — almost $ 950. Such price dynamics, Belova notes, are primarily associated with the active unwinding of the sanctions spiral. The market, most likely, included in the quotes the possibility of a partial or complete halt in Russian gas supplies. A military operation on the territory of a transit country also increases the risk of damage to the gas transport infrastructure, she believes. Igor Galaktionov, an expert at BCS World of Investments, agrees with her. «The sharp rise in prices is associated with fears due to the supply of Russian gas to the EU, where it occupies about 40-45% in the structure of natural gas imports. The movement could be strengthened by a speculative factor, which explains the subsequent sharp drop in quotations,» he said.< img src="/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/acd86f9ae85f2087ec52a45fca34f050.jpg" />The ECB warned of the consequences of stopping gas supplies from Russia. $1,000 per thousand cubic meters by the end of the year. After updating the historical maximum, futures fell three times in a few days and traded below $1,300 on Friday. shifted towards oil and oil products, on the other hand, EU officials recognize the impossibility of a quick and painless rejection of Russian gas,» Belova adds. The level of uncertainty remains high, so volatility in gas contracts may persist, the analyst at BCS Mir Investments notes. A new surge, he believes, may occur in the event of an aggravation of sanctions rhetoric, as well as worsening weather conditions in the EU, which is fraught with a jump in gas consumption and more intensive emptying of gas storage facilities, which are already filled by 10 p.p. below normal levels for this time of year. The spot gas market has been in a state of tension since the summer of last year, so even any careless word (let alone action) could again lead to an update in price records, especially against the backdrop of depletion of gas reserves in EU storage facilities, the VYGON Consulting analyst is sure. «As for the fall in gas prices, we do not expect prices below $ 1,000 per thousand cubic meters until at least the end of 2022,» she adds. But a significant increase in gas prices in Europe began last spring, when the average price spot on the hub index TTF fluctuated in the range of 250-300 dollars per thousand cubic meters. At the end of summer, the value of a contract with a day-ahead delivery exceeded $600, and in early October it was already $1,000. Experts attributed this price increase to several factors: high demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia, major suppliers and low levels of occupancy of European underground storage facilities after a long cold winter and a hot summer in 2021. Such persistently high prices have not been seen in the entire history of the operation of gas hubs in Europe — since 1996.»Gazprom» said that it supplies gas for transit through Ukraine on a regular basis. Will Europe have enough gas? Russia is the largest and most important supplier of gas to Europe. At the same time, European suppliers plan to reduce purchases of Russian gas. Now the level of occupancy of European «undergrounds» is at its lowest level in many years. The stocks made last year in underground gas storages were drawn to zero at the end of February, and now the withdrawal — it can last until mid-April — comes from the gas from previous years. such significant volumes of gas that have never been injected in one summer season, Gazprom emphasized. This will have a significant impact on the cost of gas on the market, the company also noted. task,» Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital, noted earlier. By the end of the selection season, the overall occupancy rate of European storage facilities is expected to drop to 20%, he noted.In Germany, the consequences of refusing Russian gas were revealed enough gas for winter. Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine on February 24th. President Vladimir Putin called its goal «the protection of people who have been subjected to bullying and genocide by the Kiev regime for eight years.» For this, according to him, it is planned to carry out «demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine», to bring to justice all war criminals responsible for «bloody crimes against civilians» in Donbass. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the Armed Forces strike only at the military infrastructure and Ukrainian troops. With the support of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the DPR and LPR groups are developing an offensive. But there is no question of the occupation of Ukraine, the President of Russia emphasized. In response to this, the United States, the EU countries and a number of other states, including Japan, introduced new sanctions against Russia and major Russian organizations. As Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier, the sanctions The West is very serious, Russia was preparing for them in advance. He added that they require analysis and coordination of departments in order to develop response measures that meet the interests of the Russian Federation. Dmitry Birichevsky, director of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told RIA Novosti that Moscow's reaction to Western sanctions would be prompt and sensitive, work on response measures is ongoing all directions. He noted that in the face of increased restrictions, the Russian side is reducing the use of the dollar in foreign exchange reserves and external settlements, switching to non-Western capital markets, and also making efforts to protect investment projects from external negative influence. The diplomat stressed that Moscow regrets that the European Union unleashed a «total economic war» against Russia. At the same time, Birichevsky noted, EU sanctions cause enormous damage to the citizens of the Union itself and the reasons for their introduction are difficult to justify logically. The Russian Foreign Ministry later added that the lists of retaliatory personal sanctions against the West were ready. 2022/03/36a15c8001537da6fdd5b4cd742759ca.jpg» />Expert: Nord Stream 2 investors will suffer losses if the project is canceled
