The movement of Russian troops indicates that they are trying to cordon off the JFO forces in three directions, and this may be the main focus of the aggressor.
In the month since the beginning of Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the advance of Russian troops in key Ukrainian cities, in particular Kyiv, has slowed down. It is becoming more and more obvious that the attack of the Russian Federation did not go according to plan, reports the Chronicle.info with reference to TSN.
CNN writes about this and offers five possible scenarios and risks that could affect the outcome of the war.
The Russian Federation may increase air raids
The more serious blows will be inflicted on Russian troops on the ground , the more likely it is that RF will intensify its campaign of airstrikes and bombings — as well as the use of other weapons that expose the aggressor's soldiers to less danger and lead the situation to a dead end. So say the experts.
The publication recalled that the day before, the Russian media erroneously published data according to which Russia had already lost almost 10 thousand military personnel, and about 16 thousand more were injured.
«If such losses are confirmed, they could explain both the slippage in ground advance (of Russian troops — ed.), and the increase in the number of aerial bombardments of key cities in Ukraine and other attacks from a distance», the article says.
Its authors note that Russia has already begun shelling Mariupol from ships in the Sea of Azov.
«Russia still has potential and reserves, so we can expect a surge in intensity, because it will try to bring in more troops», Jeffrey Mankoff, a researcher at the National Defense University's Institute for National Strategic Studies, told CNN.
Russia is pulling troops from all over the country, even from the Pacific Fleet, the British Ministry of Defense said yesterday. The Russian Federation is also trying to recruit fighters from Armenia and private military companies, Syrians and other mercenaries.
The question is how long Russia can continue the war with such heavy losses of personnel.
«Of course, more troops, other equipment and assistance will be brought in, but there is a point after which it will be difficult to maintain such a pace of operations, especially with the figures that we have heard — both in human and material losses, when they exceed the resupply capabilities», Mankoff said.
Russian forces are trying to cordon off the JFO fighters, and this may be the main focus of the aggressor
Now many are discussing that the Russian offensive attempt has bogged down, but whether this is true or not depends on what goals Moscow had from the very beginning, CNN notes. It is very difficult to evaluate such goals, since the publicly stated «justifications» the invasions were a set of propaganda claims — such as the «denazification of Ukraine».
In all likelihood, Russia will try to absorb at least some of the regions in eastern Ukraine.
«And while Russia's ambitions may extend beyond the Donbass, it is probably still the center of attention, experts say», the CNN article notes.
The authors note that while much attention is paid to the Russian offensive on Kyiv, at the same time, most of the Ukrainian army remains near Donetsk and Luhansk, where these units were grouped as part of the Joint Forces Operation. The movement of Russian troops indicates that that they are trying to cordon off the JFO forces in three directions, and this may be the main focus of the Russian Federation. This becomes obvious if you pay attention to the specifics of the Russian troops sent to the region, says a researcher from the British Royal Joint Institute for Defense Studies Sam Crenny-Evans.
«Southern Military District (RF — ed.) — in Donetsk, Lugansk, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol — these are the best parts of the Russian army. And they are always in service, they are designed to fight NATO forces. Regarding the forces that were supposed to encircle Kyiv, they suggest that either it was a target that Russia considered easily accessible, or she overestimated the capabilities of such forces, which leads to the idea that the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the JFO zone is part of the goal that Russia seeks to achieve. And the movements of Russian troops really seem to confirm that this is the case», the British researcher explained.
In his opinion, the Western media were so focused on the losses of the Russian Federation and the strength of the resistance of Ukraine that they did not accurately reflect the dynamics of the current war.
«If we look at the maps, it becomes clear that  ;Russian troops as a whole have advanced quite far inland of a very large country. They have already captured several cities, so now many more Ukrainian citizens are under the control of the Russian Federation than three weeks ago. No matter how many pieces of Russian equipment were blown up or how many Russian soldiers died, a significant number of Ukrainians suffered the same fate,” said Crenny-Evans.
The war in Ukraine could turn into a protracted conflict
One of the scenarios described in the CNN article is that the war in Ukraine could turn into a protracted conflict. The authors of the publication write — in all likelihood, Russia lost a significant number of soldiers, weapons and equipment in this war, and although it has participated in protracted conflicts in the past, the state may not want to leave the current conflict with a completely destroyed army.< /strong>
«Negotiations are one area where the situation looks a little bit encouraging, as both Russia and Ukraine said last week that they were moving towards a real substantive discussion — instead of another ultimatum that Russia could put on the table» , — said Cyrus Giles, an expert on Russia from the British think tank Chatham House.
Russian officials said that their demands -Ukraine's refusal to join NATO, the demilitarization of the state and acceptance of a neutral status. However, the terms of what this means for Ukraine remain a matter of negotiation.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with CNN on March 22 that the state also insists on recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, and the «LNR» and «DNR» – independent states.
Russia will try to cut off its eastern regions from Ukraine, many experts believe.
«It can be painful to discuss all this unless Ukraine gets enough military and humanitarian aid to the West to really turn the tide and reverse Russia's advance», Giles said.
&# 171;If the question is who is able to pour in more resources and take more of a hit in order to win, then Russia has a considerable «track record» wars, for the sake of which she went to significant economic damage and suffering of her own population», — noted. expert, reflecting on Western sanctions, which are already beginning to «bite» Russian economy.
Senior US officials are not overly optimistic about the success of the talks. For example, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said earlier that a diplomatic solution to the war is unlikely because Russia's actions «completely contradict any serious diplomatic efforts designed to end the war.» Blinken also suggested that Russia could escalate the war by using chemical weapons.
Massive «deportation» Ukrainians to Russia
Russia has called on the residents of Mariupol to leave the city, continuing aggressive aerial bombardments that are razing it to the ground. Russian forces have opened what they call «humanitarian corridors», ostensibly to allow civilians to escape, yet tens of thousands of them have been forcibly taken to Russia.
«Over the past week, several thousand Mariupol residents have been taken to Russia. What the infidels are doing today is familiar to the older generation, which caught the terrible events of the Second World War, when the Nazis forcibly took people out», said the mayor of Mariupol Vadim Boychenko the day before.
Giles is afraid of repeating these dark pages of history in the coming weeks.
Russian history has experienced brutal and ferocious repressions against civilians in any of the areas where at least some kind of resistance movement arose. She has actually moved on to «deportation» people from Mariupol to remote areas of Russia, directly repeating the scenarios used by Russia in the 20th century to solve such «problems», the researcher said.
He recalled the « deportation» hundreds of thousands of people from the Baltic countries — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, which the Russian Federation annexed to the USSR at the beginning of World War II.
«Deportation» is just a euphemism. The word was used as an innocent enough term for what happened to these people: actual enslavement and doom to starvation, exportation of children, women and other people who were pulled out of society in order to «neutralize» them. As a rule, a terrible fate awaited them. If they survived at all, they could not return for years or decades,” Giles said.
Millions of Ukrainians could leave the country, splitting the nation
One thing is the result of the war, another thing is the fate of Ukraine, CNN notes. Just as Russian aircraft reduced some Syrian cities to rubble, parts of Ukraine are starting to look the same.
More than 3.5 million people left Ukraine, most of them women and children, which means that War also divides families. The Russian invasion has already triggered the biggest refugee flow in Europe since World War II. These figures are growing at a rate of up to 100 thousand people a day.
If we take into account the number of internally displaced persons, then 10 million Ukrainians left their homes during the month of the war — almost a quarter of the population, concludes CNN.
< p>«The wars of the past show that refugees often never return to their home countries. Often there is nowhere to return. And sometimes the threat of a new war is enough to keep the refugees far away,», the article says.
This is something that negotiators will have to keep in mind during future meetings. According to Crenny-Evans, even if a diplomatic solution is found to end this war, the question remains whether this solution will be enough to prevent the next one.
«If we look in historical retrospect at those authoritarian regimes that failed on the battlefield, then subsequently they were not inclined to change their behavior in a positive direction. Therefore, the problem could be that if the Ukrainians say: «Ok, we are ready for a neutral status, just get out», — Russians can say: «No, you have to give us Donetsk and Lugansk «, the researcher suggested.
He believes that perhaps this would even be an acceptable option for Ukraine to stop the war.
< p>«But what if, for example, in 10 years Ukraine advances on the path of serious military modernization? Will the next president of Russia want to prove his worth, and they will wage another war? There are many scenarios of what the end of this war can lead to «, the expert emphasized.