Following this round of negotiations, some conclusions can be drawn about Moscow's further tactics.
After a long break, the Ukrainian and Russian delegations will hold a face-to-face meeting in Istanbul, Turkey. With what both sides approached it and what role Turkey plays in the negotiations, reports the Chronicle.info with reference to RBC-Ukraine.
Today, Istanbul will host the first face-to-face round of Ukrainian-Russian talks in several weeks. Of course, there are no special hopes that it will lead at least to the withdrawal of the aggressor's troops from Ukraine. But following the results of the round, it will be possible to draw some conclusions about Moscow's further tactics.
Attempt number five
The first meeting of the Ukrainian and Russian delegations took place already on the fifth day of the invasion, February 28th. Like the next two rounds, on March 3 and 7, it took place on the territory of Belarus. After that, the parties switched to online consultations. In Ukraine, this was explained by the fact that each time our delegation spends a lot of time to get to the place of negotiations (and for obvious reasons this is impossible to do by air).
In addition, on February 10, in Antalya, Turkey, a meeting was held between the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, Dmitry Kuleba and Sergey Lavrov, which generally ended without results. Kuleba stressed that Lavrov, as it turned out, did not have a mandate for any action, and after the meeting, Lavrov himself made statements that were extremely absurd, even by Russian standards, such as «Russia did not attack Ukraine» ;.
The current meeting in Istanbul, a little over a month after the start of Russian aggression, may be more specific. «This meeting shows that there is a need to talk about something in more detail. I hope that certain changes have taken place in the position of the Russian side, on those points that are of fundamental importance to us», said ex-Foreign Minister Konstantin Grishchenko.
According to him, the remote format of communication in itself complicates negotiations. In addition, according to Grishchenko, the expected presence of Turkish representatives in the hall will make it possible to avoid the usual ways of communication for Russians.
The agenda of the talks is unknown. Both Kyiv and Moscow prefer to avoid particular specifics. Obviously, we can talk about some «rapprochement of positions» regarding the demands and conditions of Ukraine put forward by the aggressors. At the very least, President Volodymyr Zelensky often speaks in his speeches about the need for «compromise» — while immediately stipulating that concessions on fundamental issues, such as the territorial integrity of the country, cannot be discussed in principle.
In addition, in his interview with Russian journalists, Zelensky said that the demands of the aggressors about « ;denazification» and «demilitarization» Ukraine does not intend to discuss at all. But a dialogue is possible on the issue of language and the neutral status of Ukraine — subject to the receipt of reinforced concrete security guarantees.
The Kremlin talks about its demands in the most confusing way. Different speakers voiced different conditions, for example, by the third week of the war, the aggressors began to recall «denazification» much less often, but they began to disperse the story about allegedly having nuclear and other non-conventional weapons in Ukraine.
However, on the eve of the talks in Istanbul, Vladimir Medinsky, a member of the Russian delegation, confirmed that the initial list of demands of the aggressor country is still relevant. It recognizes the occupation of Crimea and the Donbass pseudo-republics, and all the same «denazification» with «demilitarization», which, according to him, are the most important for Moscow.
On political issues, the parties are expected to «mark time», Medinsky said. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov also said that there was no progress in the negotiations, and one should not expect an early meeting between Vladimir Zelensky and Vladimir Putin. Namely, any official agreements are possible on it.
In turn, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said that the minimum program of the Istanbul talks will be the solution of humanitarian issues, the maximum program is the achievement of a sustainable ceasefire.
«We are waiting with interest for a conversation between the two delegations to see if the Russians will come to these negotiations with a willingness to really agree on something, or simply repeat their demands that have been voiced from the very beginning. If we see that the mood has changed and they are ready for a serious substantive discussion and balanced agreements, then things will move forward. If this is again a repetition of their propaganda clichés behind closed doors, then they will disperse just as they came together,” Kuleba said.
Turkish maneuvers
The most optimistic about peace talks is expressed not Ukraine or Russia, and the country where they will be held is Turkey. Throughout March, Turkish top officials made encouraging comments several times.
And on March 25, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally announced that Ukraine and the Russian Federation were close to consensus on four of the six controversial points: non-joining NATO, security guarantees, the status of the Russian language and disarmament. However, Dmitry Kuleba promptly issued a reassuring statement that no agreements, in particular, on the language, have been reached.
Erdogan has been highly diplomatic even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, offering his services as a negotiator. With the beginning of the aggression, Turkey began to act even more intensively, and taking a pronouncedly proactive position. Unlike a number of other European countries, which Ukraine constantly has to push to take some decisive action.
It is worth noting that Turkey in the ongoing processes can act not only as an intermediary, but also as a guarantor of security, and these roles should not be confused. A relatively small state can also be an intermediary country providing a platform for negotiations between the conflicting parties and leading their moderation. A recent example is the United Arab Emirates, which successfully mediated negotiations between India and Pakistan last year that resulted in the parties agreeing to abide by the terms of the truce.
In the case of aggression against Ukraine, the function of an intermediary is, of course, also important. But the Ukrainian government pays special attention to countries that can become guarantors of our security in the event of abandoning the course of joining NATO. A possible analogy is an agreement between South Korea and the United States to provide each other with military and other assistance in the event of aggression against one of them. The Ukrainian government wants to have several such guarantors: permanent members of the UN Security Council, as well as Germany, Canada, Israel and the same Turkey.
But the question of specific security guarantees is obviously not on the agenda yet day of today's talks. And the role of Turkey so far is reduced to mediation.
Moreover, the country is well suited for this role. Turkey is one of the very few states that maintain normal relations with both Ukraine and the Russian Federation. And this differs, for example, from Belarus, which is an absolute satellite of the Russian Federation and an accomplice in the aggression against Ukraine. Therefore, in the transfer of negotiations to a truly neutral Turkey, one can see a small, albeit symbolic, concession from the Russian Federation.
In the Ukrainian-Russian war, Ankara occupies a special position. On the one hand, it sells us drones «Bayraktar» — an effective and almost legendary weapon with which the Ukrainian forces destroy the invaders. On the other hand, he does not join the sanctions against the Russian Federation and says that it is impossible to «burn bridges with Russia».
At the same time, Erdogan is an influential geopolitical player that Putin inevitably has to reckon with . And if the Russian Federation goes on a new round of escalation (for example, it uses non-conventional weapons against Ukraine), it will look like a spit in the face of the Turkish president, who personally entered the negotiation process.
At the same time, Turkey does not miss the opportunity to probe the weakened positions of the Russian Federation, which can be attributed to the recent aggravation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Taking advantage of the fact that Russia is now clearly not up to the Caucasus, Azerbaijan expanded the territory of its control in Nagorno-Karabakh, accusing Armenia of violating the peace agreements reached in 2020.
Moscow tried to be indignant, but ran into a rebuff from Baku, which in an extremely harsh tone reminded the Russians that Nagorno-Karabakh is the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. At the same time, the country's authorities would hardly have decided to take such a step without feeling strong support from Turkey, their main ally.
In general, in the Ukrainian-Russian war, Erdogan really wants to get the laurels of a peacemaker, which so far has not been possible , for example, French President Emmanuel Macron.
«A country that can help resolve the largest conflict since the Second World War will become the most authoritative in its region, at least, will have a serious impact on global processes, and Erdogan just wants to establish Turkey as a leading power», – said Konstantin Grishchenko.
As for the direct interests of Ukraine, after the Istanbul talks it may become clear whether the Russian Federation is ready for any significant concessions. Or he simply uses them to drag out time and accumulate strength for a new offensive attempt.
In any case, even if some specific agreements on individual points are reached, it is worth remembering that the rule works in diplomacy: neither what is not agreed until everything is agreed.