MOSCOW, 12 Mar. Scientists from the Moscow State University of Geodesy and Cartography (MIIGAiK) have developed a predictive model that will help accurately predict the areas and scales of floods and determine the best measures to reduce damage from them.
The university noted that the average annual damage from floods for 2012-2017 is estimated at about 40 billion rubles. First of all, we are talking about large spills of such rivers as the Volga, Amur, Don and Lake Baikal. At the same time, existing forecasting systems do not take into account all the factors necessary for accurate calculations.
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The model for predicting critical water level rise and flood damage, presented by MIIGAiK specialists, was created on the basis of comprehensive data on flooding in Russia over the past 15 years.
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“Using our mathematical model, we can calculate the area prone to flooding, up to a specific building — whether it is safe or not. The algorithm makes it possible to determine the possible degree of damage to infrastructure and the threat to the population in the event of a flood,” said Aleksey Kurlov, head of the university’s laboratory for urban technologies and spatial development.
Already, the model allows you to create 3D maps showing the probabilities of certain destruction from floods as a percentage, he continued. It also makes it possible to assess economic damage, but its main goal is to create in advance the best recommendations for preventive security measures in the area of likely risks.
For example, in some cities it will be enough to transform the drainage system. And in the case of such remote and inaccessible territories as Kamchatka, the only possible measure is the evacuation of residents before the flood.
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"In 2021, the total damage from floods in Russia, according to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, amounted to more than eight billion rubles, about 21 thousand people were affected. The new modeling system will help to avoid casualties and reduce economic losses, as it is able to predict in detail the flooding of territories and in the near future will be able to select the necessary preventive measures,” says Nadezhda Kamynina, rector of MIIGAiK.
Experts are sure that when using The predictive model can predict natural disasters such as floods in southern Russia in 2021, and better prepare infrastructure for them.
So far, university scientists have compiled a detailed 3D map of seasonal flooding for the Komi capital the city of Syktyvkar, and in the near future they plan to perform analytical forecasts for all regions with the danger of a critical rise in water.