«It all depends on whether we can respond correctly»
Kyiv is changing the plan to release Artemovsk (Bakhmut). Several Telegram channels wrote about this, citing sources in Zelensky's office. Allegedly, earlier the plan of the commander of the ground forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky implied flank attacks on Artemovsk from four sides, but the weather conditions do not allow it to be implemented. Due to rains and mudslides, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not risk going on the offensive. Therefore, a new model of a concentrated strike at the junction of Russian troops and the Wagner PMC has been proposed.
The head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts Andrei Klintsevich told MK how viable Syrsky's proposal is and whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine have enough strength to break through our defenses.
— The version is viable. Zelensky, despite the constant pulling back from the West, his advice to leave Artemovsk and stop wasting energy and resources there, clings to this city with maniacal persistence. In fact, the longer the Armed Forces prepare for this strike, the less territory they control remains.
Now they control less than thirty percent of Bakhmut. This territory is located just in the direction of the main road through the village of Krasnoye, further on Chasov Yar and Konstantinovka. It is clear that Syrsky needs to unblock the city, he wants to wedge into our forces with a large coverage. But they will not be able to enter the junction of Russian units, because we will immediately cut off this offensive.
Therefore, the only option for the enemy is to find vulnerabilities in our defenses. The fact is that in this area several semi-boilers are already being formed, into which individual parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have fallen. Relatively speaking, we have a northern group that surrounds Artemovsk, it is also a southern «claw» that surrounds Seversk. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may try to cut off this “claw” and eliminate the threat of encirclement of Seversk and Artemovsk.
In general, the defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of these lines is built in the form of fortress cities that form one large fortified area. If you carefully look at the location of these settlements on the map, then we see Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, Artemovsk on the right, and Seversk on top. They form a kind of circle. Cities are located within a large radius, which allowed them to transfer reserves between themselves.
Now we have cut this circle and entered in the middle between Seversk and Artemovsk. Therefore, the APU has no choice but to try to cut off our northwestern ledge.
— It all depends on how competently we can respond. Kyiv is accumulating very serious reserves in this direction. In the area of Chasov Yar, forces are being concentrated, preparing to enter Artemovsk and reinforce the grouping there, and from the side of Seversk and Slavyansk, just to cut our advanced forward forces.
There really is a junction of our two corps — PMC «Wagner» and units of the 2nd Army Corps, created from the military of the former People's Militia of the LPR with the support of the Chechen special forces «Akhmat».
— These are two different operations. One is strategic, with access to the coast of the Sea of Azov and cutting off the land supply route for the Crimean group. And the Artemov operation is a forced strike, the need for which arose as a result of tactical mistakes and Zelensky’s decision to defend Bakhmut at all costs. He, of course, needed, as the Americans asked him to, to withdraw troops from there and level the front line. However, he decided to keep him, and now he cannot withdraw the troops, because they will immediately be surrounded. And you can't unlock the city.
— Types of offensive can be different: immediately, counter strike, and so on. The main difference between the counteroffensive is the transition to it from the defense. Between the positions of the opposing sides there is always a so-called foreground, in other words — a gray zone. This is a no man's land where only sabotage and reconnaissance groups move and over which drones fly. They identify various targets and correct artillery fire.
Accordingly, going on the offensive implies the rapid suppression of enemy weapons. These can be long-range strikes on warehouses, headquarters, an attempt to cut off our communications.
In other words, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may first try to strike at our key points either with drones, or multiple launch rocket systems, like Himars, or missiles. This will be followed by a massive artillery strike directly on our front defenses, and then the assault groups will only go.
A clear example of what not to do is the counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye direction. There, Ukrainian troops, without any artillery support, simply stupidly marched on our positions. And then all their equipment, like in a movie about the Nazis, burned in an open field.