MOSCOW, March 24, Nikolai Guryanov. Leading climatologists of the world have published a key document on the basis of which governments will make decisions on further combating global warming. An international group of scientists explained what awaits the planet Earth, and in particular Russia.
Do not prescribe, but influence
Even if the countries that signed the Paris Agreement fulfill their obligations by 100 percent, the average temperature will still rise by one and a half to two degrees, according to the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
This a non-political scientific organization was created in the late 1980s at the initiative of the World Meteorological Organization and within the framework of the UN environmental program. 195 countries are represented in it.
The IPCC does not conduct its own research — it generalizes and analyzes data published in the scientific literature, and also uses the results of observations or calculations.
Experts are divided into several working groups. One deals with the physical basis of climate change. The other looks at the impact on social and natural systems. The third studies the role of the anthropogenic factor in nature. Russian specialists are involved in all areas.
The sixth cycle of work of the IPCC has already been completed. After reviewing the data collected from 2010 to 2019, each group released a report. In addition, they compiled a final document, the conclusions of which were published in a condensed form in the «Summary for Policymakers». All this was approved at a conference in Interlaken, Switzerland.
“The principle of the organization is to provide information that is relevant to decision-making, but not to prescribe decisions,” said Sergei Semenov, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, scientific director of the Israel Institute for Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE), vice-chairman of the IPCC Working Group II. Together with his colleagues, he presented the results of the sixth cycle at a press conference at the Rossiya Segodnya news agency.
Points of no return
Experts have drawn a line under the discussion about the causes of global warming. The air on Earth has warmed by an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era (1850-1900) due to anthropogenic emissions. But not all — some, on the contrary, cooled the atmosphere. So, greenhouse gases added about one and a half degrees, but 0.3-0.4 degrees compensated for aerosol emissions. The contribution of natural factors is no more than 0.1 degrees.
“Warming by a degree or more seems not very significant,” said Aleksey Eliseev, a researcher at the Department of Atmospheric Physics at Lomonosov Moscow State University and lead author of IPCC Working Group I, Alexei Eliseev. “In fact, for processes on a planetary scale, this corresponds to a huge distribution of energy within the system.”
This is most evident in the change in the hydrological cycle: in regions with a humid climate rainfall has increased, and in arid — less. Increasingly, extreme weather events occur — heat and cold waves, heavy rainfall, hail.
The experts considered the problem of so-called critical points, in which the behavior of natural systems changes in an unpredictable way. According to one of the hypotheses, when the atmosphere overheats, the collapse of the Gulf Stream and the death of the forests of the Amazon, an important absorber of carbon dioxide, are possible. The threshold is unknown, but the report says it is more likely to cross.
Warming is inevitable
The second working group looked at anthropogenic emissions. Under the most unfavorable scenario, the Arctic will become ten degrees warmer by the end of the century.
And even with the most optimistic within the framework of 1.2 and two degrees, indicated in the Paris climate agreement of 2015, one cannot resist. At least temporarily. width=»600″ data-crop-height=»534″ data-source-sid=»» class=»lazyload» lazy=»1″ />
To stop this, humanity needs to achieve sustainable net negative CO2 emissions as soon as possible. That is, all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions must either be absorbed or somehow stopped.
If tightened, the feedback mechanisms will start. Forest fires will intensify, peatlands will begin to dry out, permafrost will melt. Natural carbon sinks will weaken, resulting in additional emissions. Return to climate normal will be more difficult, scientists warn.
Harmful economic growth
Experts offer several solutions. First of all, the introduction of technologies with low or zero emissions. They are getting cheaper and more available. Thus, from 2010 to 2019, there was a steady decline in the cost of solar energy (85% compared to the previous period), wind energy (55%), lithium-ion batteries (85%), as well as a significant increase in their use (more than in ten times for solar, 100 for electric vehicles).
Today, maintaining emission-intensive systems in some regions can be more expensive than switching to low-emission systems, the report highlights.
Socio-cultural and behavioral changes are also important. In particular, consumption reduction. width=»600″ data-crop-height=»775″ data-source-sid=»» class=»m-vertical lazyload» lazy=»1″ />
“This can very effectively reduce the anthropogenic impact on the climate system,” said Veronika Ginzburg, deputy director of the IGCE, lead author of Working Group III. “But still, here we are talking about decisions made at the state and international levels, and not by an individual.”
According to her, refusing to buy an extra pair of jeans, which Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko recently called for, is unlikely to help in the fight against climate warming, but will be good for the environment.
By the way, GDP growth is named in the report as one of the factors for increasing emissions.
National selfishness
Russia is a country with «pronounced warming,» says Semyonov. Especially in the Arctic. The advantage is that the prospect of shipping along the Northern Sea Route is opening up. And the minus is the destruction of houses and infrastructure due to the thawing of permafrost.
«Therefore, on the one hand, we are beneficiaries, but negative effects also affect us,» the scientist specifies.
According to him, not everything is so simple even on the Northern Sea Route. “With warming, the amount of finely broken ice increases. In stormy weather, it acts like emery on coastal infrastructure,” Semenov explains. “Coastal structures are destroyed, the coastline is physically eaten away. These are some losses of territory in favor of the sea, although not catastrophic.”
Global greenhouse gas emissions are about 60 billion tons per year. The Russian contribution is one fortieth.
«It seems to be not so much. Russia's share does not significantly affect the world level. We can cut nothing at all, but only engage in adaptation. But this is a position of national egoism, fraught with negative results,» — Semenov believes.
For example, developing countries suffering from global warming will obviously not like such a policy, which will negatively affect the image of the state. In addition, the competitiveness of Russian goods with a large carbon footprint will decrease.