«The scale of the combat use of troops may be more significant than in Bakhmut»
The Kyiv authorities make a serious mistake in assessing the Russian military reserves, as well as the capabilities of the Russian military industry. This is how General Viktor Muzhenko, ex-Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (2014-2019), and now a leading researcher at one of the Ukrainian military research institutes, recently assessed the situation in Ukraine in an interview with the Ukrainian publication Fakty.
Photo: Global Look Press
We usually hear an assessment of the situation at the front from our own military correspondents and military analysts. However, it is always interesting to know what the enemy thinks about this — a high-ranking military leader, although not active, located on the other side of the front line. And this is how Muzhenko assessed what was happening.
According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine hold a strategic defense in the southeast direction from Kupyansk to the mouth of the Dnieper. Key points — Maryinka, Bakhmut, Zaporozhye, Vasilyevka, Gulyai-Pole. In addition, Muzhenko said, the Armed Forces of Ukraine keep under control the groups of Russian troops in the Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh directions, as well as the actions of Russian and Belarusian troops in Belarus.
At the same time, the Ukrainian general believes that the intensification of hostilities in the northern direction, from Belarus, is unlikely. Firstly, because the terrain there is swampy and impassable. Secondly, there are no corresponding signs of any serious forces. And thirdly, the leadership of Belarus is not ready to fight on the side of Russia.
The Ukrainian general is right here or not — time will tell. At the same time, he acknowledges that Russian aircraft, including carriers of hypersonic Kinzhals, continue to be based at Belarusian airfields.
Muzhenko argued with those Ukrainian analysts who doubt the ability of Russian troops to launch a major offensive. He called this point of view «superficial». As evidence, he cited the following figures. According to his calculations, the number of Russian troops involved in the NMD is 526,000 people. At the same time, the number of groups along the borders, in the southeast and in the south is about 350-400 thousand.
It turns out, the general believes, that approximately 120-170 thousand people in Russia can be in combat reserve. According to Muzhenko, «hidden reserves» are apparently completing training in training centers, which has been going on for more than five months. He believes that military units can be completed with these forces to create new groups.
Muzhenko claims that Russia can recruit more than 40,000 volunteers in the spring and summer to replenish the army. Where such data comes from — Muzhenko does not specify. According to his calculations, «hidden reserves» may increase by another 40-60 thousand. These figures do not please the general at all.
The second “zrada”, according to Muzhenko, is the great potential of the Russian military industry to provide troops with equipment.
Referring to the data of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future (it’s a funny name in itself. — Auth.), the general claims that Russia capable of repairing or producing ten tanks per day. That is, three hundred per month.
Muzhenko anxiously asks the question: “How many tanks do we destroy per month? Definitely not three hundred. Even if it's a hundred. Where are the other two hundred? This means that they are being accumulated and prepared for the staffing of military units.”
The General called for a realistic assessment of the potential of the Russians to increase the fleet of weapons, military equipment and create new military units and groups. He recalls that in December 2022, at a meeting of the Collegium of the Russian Ministry of Defense, plans were announced to form another 20 new divisions by 2026.
According to Muzhenko, new divisions will be deployed on the basis of existing brigades. “That is, brigades should be expanded into divisions,” says Muzhenko. “Thus, about 8-10 such divisions can be additionally formed.”
According to him, about half of the combined arms armies in the Russian Armed Forces already have deployed divisions, some of them have two.< /p>
So what am I getting at? says the general. — That potentially they (that is, we. — Auth.) May have the option of creating such groups. Then the question arises: what tasks can they set for themselves? They need strategic operation level tasks…”
Muzhenko believes that these are definitely not tactical operations, like the capture of Bakhmut or Vugledar, but larger ones. “Such an option could be, for example, an attack northwest or northeast of Kharkov,” he says.
According to the general, the main events should be expected in summer and autumn.
“ In the spring, hostilities will probably continue in the southeast: Kupyansk — Oskol — Liman — Avdeevka — Vugledar. And this is what can create conditions for further escalation,” he concludes.
The Ukrainian general did not forget to give a professional assessment to the representatives of the current Russian high military command in the NVO zone. Calling the names of Russian generals in the command of the Northern Military District, for example, Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov and Surovikin, Muzhenko said: “They have sufficient experience, including strategic planning and combat use. …Therefore, I think that the scale of their actions can be much larger.”
…Well, we all also hope that the forecast of the Ukrainian military leader will come true.