MOSCOW, March 31, by Nikolay Guryanov. Instead of overpopulating the planet, humanity may face a collapse in population by the end of the century, scientists say. What is the probability of such a scenario and what awaits Russia in this case?The higher the income, the less people
The world's population, which reached eight billion in the fall, will stop growing by mid-century or sooner. After that, it will begin to decline, and by the end of the century there will be about a quarter fewer people than now. This is the forecast prepared by order of the Club of Rome, an international think tank. The authors are a group of scientists from the Earth4All organization, which brings together environmentalists and economists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Stockholm Center for Sustainability and the Norwegian Business School BI.
The forecast took into account the social and economic factors that » proven effect on fertility decline. These include rising incomes and rising levels of education. The last indicator is especially important in relation to women.
The Earth4All report gives two scenarios depending on what policies governments will pursue. If it does not change, then the growth of the world population will approach nine billion by 2046, and by the end of the century this number will drop to 7.3 billion. According to scientists' forecasts, a total ecological or climate collapse will not occur, but the likelihood of local crises will increase until the middle of the century. The reason is «increasing discord both within social groups and between them.» The risk of such events is especially high «in the least sustainable, poorly managed and environmentally vulnerable economies.»
Minus two billion
According to the second scenario, which the report calls more optimistic, the world's population will grow to only 8.5 billion by 2040, and fall to 6 billion over the next 60 years. According to the authors of the study, such indicators can be achieved if governments increase investment in education, social services and improved indicators of equality. One of the proposed measures is to raise taxes for the rich.
The speakers believe that the reduction in the number of people will have a positive impact on human communities and nature. Greenhouse gas emissions will drop sharply, global warming will fall below the two-degree mark, and wildlife will gradually recover and thrive. However, there are also disadvantages: as the population ages, the burden on the social sphere will increase significantly, as is already happening in countries such as Japan and South Korea.
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However, the environmentalists who made the forecast do not consider demography to be the main threat to the planet. “While there is reason to believe that the population bomb will not explode, the environmental problems still remain complex,” says Ben Callegari, one of the authors of the report. “We need to make a lot of efforts to change the current development paradigm associated with overconsumption and overproduction. This more serious than overpopulation.»
«Meet the need for contraception»
Earth4All's forecast is close to the calculations of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), associated with the Bill and Melissa Gates Foundation. In 2020, a study by this organization based in Seattle (USA) also predicted a decline in the world's population to 6.3 billion by 2100. This will be subject to «achieving the sustainable development goals in education and meeting the need for contraceptives.»
According to this document, the depopulation will be especially strong in China, whose demographic losses will amount to 48 percent. The paper says that by 2035, China will become the world's largest economy, but by the end of the century it will again give way to the United States.
In the summer of 2022, the UN Population Division published a global demographic forecast, according to which, although the growth of the Earth's population will slow down, it will not be so fast and not so strong. The World Organization expects the human population to peak in the 2080s at 10.4 billion. Moreover, it will remain approximately at the same level until 2100.
The racial composition will change
Forecasts of a decrease in the population of the Earth to six billion «are unlikely, since they proceed from very simplified models», points out Andrey Korotaev, a leading researcher at the International Laboratory for Demography and Human Capital, RANEPA.
He notes that the authors of reports for the Club of Rome repeatedly «missed». The most famous of these documents — «The Limits to Growth» of 1972 — promised a global collapse by the middle of the 21st century, caused by overpopulation of the planet. However, since the early 2010s, the club has gone to the other extreme. One report claimed that the human population would not even reach eight billion. Nevertheless, this point has already been passed — in the fall of 2022.
Russian demographers consider the forecast of the UN Population Division more likely. According to experts from the RANEPA, according to the most daring assumptions, the population of the Earth is unlikely to drop below seven billion. «photo» data-crop-ratio=»1.019117647058823″ data-crop-width=»600″ data-crop-height=»611″ data-source-sid=»rian_infographics» class=»article__infographics-image-mobile lazyload» lazy =»1″ />
«The authors of the Earth4All and IHME reports assume that all countries will go one by one «and the same demographic path. But it doesn't work that way. Although there is indeed a correlation between the quality of life and the decline in the birth rate, it manifests itself differently in different parts of the world,» Korotaev explains.
Thus, with comparable indicators of GDP per capita, infant mortality, education, urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa, the birth rate is noticeably higher than in other parts of the world.
For example, in both Nigeria and China, half of the population lives in cities . But in China, there are 1.2 children per woman, and in Nigeria — 5.1. «Even when 90 percent of people in Nigeria live in cities, and GDP per capita equals China's, it is unlikely that the birth rate will be below two,» the demographer is sure.
Korotaev cites the countries of post-Soviet Central Asia as an example. In Kazakhstan, by the late 1990s and early 2000s, the birth rate fell below two children per woman, and has now risen closer to three. Kyrgyzstan at the beginning of the 2000s dropped to almost two, and now the figure there is above three. A similar story is in the Muslim countries of Asia and Africa, in particular in Iran and Tunisia. Recall that the level of simple reproduction of the population — 2.1 children per woman. Africans or residents of the countries of post-Soviet Central Asia is not a fact. Therefore, a landslide depopulation is unlikely to threaten the Earth,» the expert believes.
How to achieve growth in Russia
The demographic future of Russia, according to Korotaev, will depend on the state policy in this area. In the same UN forecast, the country's prospects are estimated quite high — almost the highest birth rate in Europe by the end of the century. The expert notes that this conclusion was made on the basis of successful measures to support families with children, which were implemented in the late 2000s and early 2010s.
“If you build a competent policy, for example, spend 11-12 percent of GDP on healthcare in the region (in 2023, this figure is 4.1 percent. — Note ed.), combined with strong new measures to support the birth rate, you can even achieve some population growth,” says the demographer, “but if, as in the 90s, the vodka and tobacco lobby prevails in our country or maternity capital is canceled, then we can fall to the level of 70-80 million.”
Now Russia is in a demographic hole. However, in a few years, the measures of state support for the birth rate, which began to be introduced in 2007, should give results.
True, the echo of the demographic failure will return to us by the middle of the century. So even with the most correct policy, it will not be possible to avoid a decline in the population, at least temporarily. But you can soften it. And then — to achieve sustainable growth. According to the most «super-optimistic» scenario that Korotaev cites, 160 million people will live in Russia by 2100.