“Polish ambitions are not limited to Western Ukraine…”
The head of the Kiev regime, Zelensky, during his visit to Warsaw this week, revealed plans to merge Poland and Ukraine into one state. He stated that in the future there will be no borders between them: political, economic, historical. Such statements are not heard for the first time: in 2022, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that there would be no borders between the two countries, and recently the Slovak analyst Dalibor Rohac announced about the upcoming merger of Ukraine and Poland into a confederation.
In Russia, they predicted a slightly different algorithm for Poland's actions. In November 2022, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation, Sergei Naryshkin, said that Warsaw was going to annex almost all of Western Ukraine as compensation for helping Kyiv. The Polish prize in this story can be Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and most of the Ternopil region. Some analysts believe that other states, such as Romania and Hungary, may also join the division of the “Ukrainian pie”. Recall also that last year the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted a law that equalizes the rights of Poles and Ukrainians. A similar law was previously adopted in Poland.
Pushkin in «Onegin» brilliantly described the «low deceit» of relatives bustling around the bedside of a terminally ill person in the hope of his inheritance. Today, Ukraine has turned out to be such an “uncle” who has seriously fallen ill. The inheritance is not God knows what — partly squandered, partly pledged. But something remains. The main thing is the territories that are huge by European standards, fertile land, black soil. The same black earth, which during the occupation, the German fascists were exported by echelons to Germany. In general, there is something to profit from. It is not surprising that vultures hover around half-dead Ukraine, jackals circle — everyone hopes to grab a piece. Of course, the “hyena of Europe” — Poland, does not stand aside either.
Poland has phantom pains, Poland has been dreaming for centuries about the lost imperial greatness. The Commonwealth — a state that arose in 1569 on the basis of the Union of Lublin and united the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, lasted more than two hundred years. At its peak, it occupied an area of 990,000 square kilometers, and its population was 12 million (for comparison, at the same time, 7.5 million lived in Spain, and 5 million in England). The area of modern Poland is 312,679 km². Theoretically, it was Poland that could become the center of the Slavic world, the largest Eastern European empire. That is to take the place of Russia. But the cards fell differently.
Already in 1795, there was no such state on the world map as Poland. She simply disappeared, as if the Almighty had erased her with an eraser. Was — and no. As they said then, “three black eagles tore the white one to pieces”: Poland was divided between the Russian Empire, Austria and Prussia. The state symbols of the last three were black eagles, and Poland — white.
Historians are still arguing about what ruined Poland. Personally, I don't think she had a chance. Like they don't exist now. The Poles are not the kind of nation capable of forming and maintaining an empire. Not that national character, not that mentality. The Russians are indeed an imperial nation, while the Poles are not. Here we can recall the famous “Polish arrogance”, which is the main cause of all Polish misfortunes, including the Second World War, and contempt for national minorities, and the fact that the word “bydlo”, popular today, entered the Russian language from Polish.< /p>
However, after the collapse of the USSR, the revival of the former Polish greatness seems to be seriously engaged in the Americans. What happens: the New Commonwealth, «Poland from sea to sea» — is it no longer revanchist dreams of Polish nationalists, but a real geopolitical project?
— In the Constitution of modern Poland, this state is already defined as the “Third Rzeczpospolita”. — says political scientist, specialist in international relations in Eastern Europe Alexander Nosovich. — When you cross the Polish border, you see the sign «Rzeczpospolita Polska» — this is the official name of the country in Polish. The period from 1918 to 1939 in Polish historiography is called the «II Rzeczpospolita». The leadership of Poland, headed by Yaroslav Kaczynski, considers the «III Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth» a failed project. They claim that the ruling Law and Justice Party (PIS) is already building the fourth Rzeczpospolita.
— As for the borders of this «4th Commonwealth», officially Poland, as a country of the Western bloc, is fighting for the preservation of post-war borders in Europe. It seeks to expand its spheres of influence solely through economic and humanitarian intervention in the east. The work of Polish soft power in Ukraine after the collapse of the USSR is an exemplary example of such activity. Because in fact Western Ukraine, those regions of Galicia and Volhynia, which were Polish provinces in the interwar period, are already under the systemic control of the Poles — through joint business ventures, through non-profit organizations, various youth programs, student exchanges, through Ukrainian guest workers traveling to earnings in Poland.
The same work was carried out in Belarus, and it was crowned with several attempts at a «color revolution» in Minsk. Behind the failed Belarusian Maidan were largely the Polish media and non-profit organizations. That is, Poland chooses a soft, informal absorption of territories in the east due to the growth of its economic and humanitarian influence as the main method of expanding its sphere of influence. As for the formal expansion of Poland's borders by including Western Ukraine in its composition, they are very fond of talking about this in the Russian Federation, because it is beneficial for Russia for this to happen. But Poland's ambitions have always been much broader.
— Poland sees as its ideal a protectorate over Ukraine, which will formally remain as an independent state. It will serve as a buffer between Poland and Russia, which Warsaw considers a source of constant threat. Such a buffer Ukraine will be de facto controlled by Poland, which will use all its resources, including access to the Black Sea. In this configuration, which is ideal in the opinion of Polish diplomacy, Poland will reproduce the contours of the first Commonwealth, an empire «from sea to sea.» In the Middle Ages, the Commonwealth included the territories of Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania and part of Moldova.
— The legitimation of its new borders in the west is beneficial for the Russian Federation. Nobody recognizes its new territories as Russian now. And if Romania, Poland and Hungary also divide Ukraine, then this will be a completely different international situation, in which there will be much fewer questions for the Russian Federation.
— Yes, there is such an opinion. This is the opinion of a certain part of the power circles. But this is a debatable issue. There is a point of view according to which the admission of the Russian Federation into Western Ukraine is unprofitable. She simply will not digest it, just as the USSR did not digest both Western Ukraine and the Baltic states. Judging by the constant statements of certain representatives of the Russian authorities that Poland expects to snatch a piece from Ukraine, one gets the impression that from their point of view this would be a good exchange.
— I hear the name of this expert and the name of his organization for the first time. Such arguments are often heard, especially in the Russian Federation. But in the West and in Poland itself, such thoughts are tried not to be openly articulated. Officially, they have Russia as a violator of recognized borders in Europe and an aggressor. And all of them allegedly fight to maintain the status quo and oppose the redistribution of spheres of influence. Only marginals allow themselves such statements openly.
— Exactly.
HELP MK.
Dalibor Rohac is a Slovak foreign policy analyst. Research Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and part-time at the Max Beloff Center at the University of Buckingham in the UK and the Institute of Economics in London. In the past he has been associated with the Cato Institute's Center for Global Freedom and Prosperity, the Legatum Institute in London, and the Center for a New Europe in Brussels. He worked in the Office of the President of the Czech Republic in Prague. He received his doctorate in political economy from King's College London.
— All information on this topic is open, Poland does not hide it. Warsaw officially sets the goal of becoming the largest military power in Europe by 2030. They are creating the largest army in Europe, which in size should surpass the army of Germany. The main message of Poland to its Western allies is that its historical role in the future will be to protect the borders of Europe from «threats from the East.» Of course, “threats from the East” mean first of all Russia, and secondly, in the future, China. And if you think more globally, then the Russian-Chinese alliance. Based on this, there is a militarization of Poland, a quantitative increase in its conventional weapons, primarily offensive ones, for example, tanks. Along the way, there are attempts by Polish diplomacy to persuade the United States to nuclearize Poland. That is, to the transfer of American nuclear weapons to Poland from Germany. Moreover, recently there has been talk that not only from Germany. In Europe, about 150 atomic bombs are stored at American bases. In Germany, Italy and a number of other states where the Americans settled after World War II. Polish diplomacy claims that since the main threat to Poland today comes from Russia, all these atomic bombs must be transported to its territory. Of course, we are not talking about the transfer of nuclear weapons by the Americans to Poland, but only about the fact that they store and service them on Polish territory. Closer to the potential theater of operations — Belarus and the Kaliningrad region. These are the military plans of Poland. Warsaw does not hide them at all. The task of militarization is set openly. Poland sees itself as the eastern flank of NATO, in which it will become the leading political force in Europe, more powerful and more valuable to the US than France and Germany.
— Yes, definitely. Moreover, this activity of the Americans is directed not only against the Russian Federation, but also against Germany. They prefer to see Poland as the leading force in Europe. This is explained, firstly, by the fact that the European Union, led by Germany, was able to become an economic alternative and equal potential economic competitor to the United States. This was perceived as a threat by the Obama administration. The United States began to fight this and tried in various ways to undermine the economic power of the EU. Under Obama, there was such a project called the Transatlantic Trade Partnership. Trump simply forced Germany to pay more military spending, thereby increasing the burden on the German economy and undermining its competitive opportunities. Biden has a third approach: forcing Europeans to support Ukraine. Europe supports it much more than the US itself. The second reason is that Europe, led by Germany, in certain periods tried to get out of the control of the United States, to pursue an independent policy. This was most clearly demonstrated in 2003, when Germany and France opposed the war in Iraq. The situation is unacceptable for the US when one of their allies tries to oppose them. Therefore, Germany and France, as countries inclined towards economic independence, they undermined and will continue to undermine. Just like Japan, by the way. Finally, the third reason that explains a lot about American policy towards Germany, as well as towards Japan, is that these countries fought against the United States in World War II. Poland, which is being formed as a key European power at the expense of the United States, is the best option for the Americans. And the fact that the Poles are Germanophobes to the same extent as Russophobes suits the US perfectly.
— I would not say that Brzezinski's students are influential there now. On the contrary, his school is in the pen. The influence of the Polish diaspora is also greatly exaggerated. The United States is doing this because it is beneficial to them and in line with their interests. This is a subtle and pragmatic political calculation.
— Poland has received 130 billion euros since joining the EU from 2004 to 2009. That, in fact, is the whole Polish economic miracle. Of course, it is also impossible to completely deny the talents of Polish leaders, because others could steal this money, and the Poles invested it in roads, infrastructure, industry, in strategic facilities that allow the Polish economy now to feel quite confident. But if it were not for these colossal investments, then there would be nothing. Poland did not earn this money, they, in fact, fell from the sky. And one more factor cannot be ignored when we talk about the economic success of Poland: it is cheap labor from Ukraine. After the Maidan, millions of Ukrainians were sent to Poland and worked there for pennies, even by our Russian standards. And by Polish standards, it was actually free work. The doping that Poland received at the expense of Ukrainian migrant workers could not have been obtained by any country in the post-Soviet space.
— The Poles themselves, speaking about the history of their relations with Russia, use the term “historical competition”. They are even proud of it, emphasizing that there was a time when Poland was on an equal footing with such a great country as Russia. When the Poles feasted in the Kremlin, they put their Polish princes on the throne in Moscow, etc. Another question is that they lost this historical competition, and with a devastating score. In the 19th century, Warsaw was already a provincial city of the Russian Empire, the center of the Vistula region. Of course, this historical resentment for losing the competition for the East European Plain largely dictates Warsaw's eastern policy.
— Yes, definitely. The Polish elites never concealed this. They believe that a weak Russia is the key to Europe's security. A collapsed Russia is just happiness for Europe. There is a lot of historical continuity here. Because interwar Poland, «II Rzeczpospolita», Piłsudski's Poland, directly set itself the task of liberating the peoples of the former Russian Empire. This is a movement of «Prometheism», which sought to spur national liberation, separatist movements in the USSR and anti-Russian movements in all the former parts of the Russian empire that could become part of the USSR. Recently, a study by Russian historians has been published that claims that all the work of the Polish special services in the eastern direction in the interwar period was subordinated to these ideas. They sought out nationalist and separatist movements not only on the territory of their neighbors — Ukraine and Belarus, but also climbed with these ideas into Armenia, Azerbaijan and even Central Asia. So the course that Warsaw is now pursuing, which is being promoted by Polish experts working in Western centers, is traditional for Poland. In the 30s, on the eve of World War II, when Warsaw believed that Poland and Germany could be allies, the special services of these two countries worked together on the territory of the USSR.
— The probability that the Polish state will officially send its troops to the territory of Ukraine is now small. This is unlikely to happen in the short term. As for the Polish volunteers, this is an open secret. The Poles are the undisputed leaders in the number of mercenaries who fight on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And the Polish media in recent weeks have begun to carefully prepare the population of Poland for the fact that the Polish participation in the hostilities in Ukraine is quite significant and that the Poles are suffering serious losses there.
— The population, of course, believes, because it is intimidated. Polish official propaganda in this part is absolutely total, there is no alternative opinion. Yes, the population is confident that after Ukraine, Putin will go to Poland and the Baltic countries. As for the political class, they may actually be scared, but they are trying to express this fear as brightly as possible and demonstrate it to NATO allies, knocking out financial and military assistance to Poland, preferences for Poland and increased attention to Warsaw. For Poland, the Baltic States, Romania, a sincere fear of Russia and the sale of this fear, the use of it for their own political purposes — these are things that do not exclude each other.
— There is such a possibility . At this stage, it is primarily associated with numerous NATO exercises with the participation of Poles in the Baltic Sea region. Namely, sea exercises near the territorial waters of the Russian Federation along the coast of the Kaliningrad region and near the land borders of this region. There is a high probability of an accidental incident, which occurs regularly in the exercises.
— A direct invasion of Poland into Belarus was likely at a time when the military alliance of the Russian Federation and Belarus was in question. This is 2015-2020. After the start of the JMD and the deployment of the Russian military contingent on the territory of Belarus, and especially after the decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons there, the likelihood of Poland's intervention has significantly decreased.