«Price increase will not be long in coming»
The dollar exchange rate has broken through the psychological mark and exceeded 80 rubles. During trading on the Moscow Exchange with settlements «tomorrow» it rose to 81.03 rubles. Following the “American”, the euro also rushed up, whose stock quotes reached 88.5 rubles. Our ruble, which has provided worthy resistance to world currencies for a whole year, has given up.
According to analysts, the last time the ruble was at such levels was a year ago, in mid-April 2022. But then, as we remember, the situation was different. Shortly before this, a special military operation began in Ukraine, the “collective West” imposed powerful economic sanctions against Moscow. The ruble collapsed sharply. And then, thanks to the tough measures of the Central Bank, it began to gradually strengthen. Now he is falling.
And this is despite the fact that, as can be understood from the government's statements, the economic situation in our country has noticeably improved and stabilized. And inflation has slowed down, and we are used to sanctions, because we have been living under them for more than a year. But the fact is obvious: with regard to the exchange rate, we are returning to the days of a year ago, when prices for goods, imported and domestic, went off scale in stores. And the Russians were at a loss: to run or not to run to the exchange offices? What will happen to the exchange rate tomorrow?
What has changed in our economy so that the ruble suddenly staggered from the first days of April? After all, at the end of March, 77 rubles were given for a dollar, 84 for a «European» — and suddenly such a sharp tailspin …
According to economists, the weakening of the Russian currency is taking place against the backdrop of a simultaneous recovery in imports and a decrease in exports. In addition, the demand for foreign currency has increased on the part of banks, which return their positions after the payment of Russian Eurobonds. In addition, analysts see an imbalance in the supply and demand of the currency in the depreciation of the ruble.
In general, ordinary Russians have something to think about. Despite success in import substitution, many goods, components and ingredients still come to us from abroad. And the consumer market is very sensitive to any changes in the current rate.
— In fact, nothing terrible happened, — says financial analyst Sergei Drozdov. – We saw such values of the dollar both in 2020 and in 2022. If we take into account all our problems in the economy and the budget, then approximately this rate should have been maintained over the past year.
— That's when the people believed that the ruble would begin to strengthen. I then advised: seize the moment, who needs it — buy currency for 55-60 rubles. But some also waited for reinforcements to 40 or 30. They waited for 80…
— If the course stays at these levels for some time, then we will see new price tags in stores. Goods mainly come through parallel imports, and there are other principles, the current rate is considered very quickly.
— Usually the time lag is one to two months. But, knowing our sellers, they are unlikely to delay this process. Remember the events of a year ago, when the price tags were rewritten literally the very next day. As a rule, sellers add their own 2-3 percent of themselves to the current rate. I guess so. For example, those cars that we received already this year will rise in price. Those who could not afford to buy a car last year will now pay more. But much will depend on the actions of the regulator — the Central Bank.
— At a recent press conference, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, transparently hinted that, they say, there are factors that will contribute to the weakening of the ruble. This is both sanctions pressure and energy price ceilings… From her words, I understood that the weakening of the ruble will continue. Although this is undesirable for us.
— It is useless to make forecasts on this score, especially when the situation on the foreign exchange market develops exponentially. No matter what they say, the exchange rate of the ruble is now manageable, at any moment the Central Bank can raise or lower it. A vivid example of this is last year's stabilization to 55 rubles per dollar.
Now the weakening of the national currency is partly attributed to the fact that some iconic global brands are exiting the Russian market. They sell their business with us, get rubles for it, then convert it into currency and take it out after permission to leave.
— In my opinion, this is not a man-made action. Ideally, the ruble exchange rate should meet the needs of importers and exporters. But, as the father of Soviet perestroika Gorbachev said, there are excesses. This is very bad. We need to wait for the Central Bank to comment on the current situation. Then we will see at what point the ruble exchange rate will stop. But the regulator is still silent.