The West risks entering into an economic war with the rest of the world
The European Union is going to discuss the new, already 11th package of anti-Russian sanctions after Catholic Easter, which is celebrated on April 9th. So far, the content of the next restrictions has not been officially disclosed, but it is known that claims will be made against “third countries” that help Moscow bypass the already established restrictions. Most likely, importers who buy up our energy resources at prices above the “ceiling” introduced by the EU will suffer. The effectiveness of such measures is extremely doubtful, since if they are approved, the West may not so much “punish Russia” as exacerbate relations with other world powers.
According to the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the new sanctions package will not be aimed at an economic confrontation with Moscow, but at the fight against bypassing existing restrictions. At her meeting in early March with US President Joe Biden, according to Western media, an agreement was reached to «aggressively» prevent the circumvention of sanctions against Russia. Leading expert of the Center for Political Technologies Nikita Maslennikov explained what the next Western restrictions might be and how much they threaten the Russian economy.
— While the content of the new sanctions is completely unclear. Only some general directions have been given, which will be specified after the Catholic Easter. Preliminary starting points were known in early March after Ursula von der Leyen met with Joe Biden. Then it was announced that, starting from the 11th package, the West is stepping up the onslaught of the already announced anti-Russian sanctions, making the transition to a long-term and systematic implementation of the already approved measures. There are essentially two main postulates: much more extensive control over the enforcement of restrictions and the blocking of all possible bypasses of the implemented directives, as well as more stringent requirements for the implementation of tariff regulation. Who are the new sanctions for? Rather, not for Russia, but for our allies who have maintained business relations with Moscow. For example, for Turkey, whose authorities first introduced barriers to customs clearance of goods coming from the European Union to Russia, and then partially resumed their transportation, although without completely prescribing the new rules of the game. In the new package, such controversial issues will obviously be settled by law — naturally, not in our favor.
— It is possible that restrictions will be introduced on the charter of cargo ships by Russia, which threatens to create new problems for domestic exporters who supply their products to the remaining friendly countries for us. This applies not only to oil and oil products, but also to the transportation of other export goods by sea. True, it is not yet clear whether such requirements will be included in the 11th package, or whether they will become the prerogative of any additional explanations and instructions. The European Union is not going to disclose clear details until Easter. One thing can be said — the sanctions against Russia have been announced in earnest and for a long time.
— Time will show how compliance with the new sanctions will be monitored. Let's not suggest to the West the weaknesses of the Russian economy. But here a new knot is tied. Now the supply of energy resources, including from our country, will become a common headache, since the reduction in spending on both sides due to the long-term pandemic and the current good weather . — «MK») Western consumers have reduced the correlation between the dollar and the cost of a barrel. Previously, it was like this: if oil quotes rise, then the dollar rises in price. At first glance, this is not a completely positive signal: if energy prices rise, then at the same time the key rate of the US Federal Reserve System rises, and then the value of the dollar rises. Then investors prefer to invest in the most liquid, but ephemeral exchange instruments — stocks, bonds, debt securities. Such a risk is unfavorable for the global economy: investments in manufacturing industries and real sectors will fall. This will lead to a drop in energy consumption. However, it is still difficult to say how this will affect the anti-Russian sanctions policy.
— It is premature to draw a conclusion about the beginning of a large-scale war against the states that have retained their former trade relations with Russia. Nevertheless, the application of indirect sanctions against countries that are not formally affected by the differences between Moscow and Washington looks like an announcement of a grandiose confrontation with the entire financial community.
— Very significant. The latest speeches by World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva in Asia confirmed the existing problem: if as a result of sanctions wars a split into various economic blocs occurs, this leads to losses of at least 7% of the entire world GDP over the next few years.
— It is necessary to track the flow of imports that go to Russia. Including deliveries under «gray» and «parallel» schemes. The new sanctions package may affect at least a third of foreign purchases. This does not mean that imports will stop, but transactions will be more expensive, which will negatively affect the ruble exchange rate. In accordance with the updated forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the average value of the dollar at the end of the year will be at the level of 77 rubles, while initially the budget was drawn up at a rate of 68 per «buck». But, as the practice of recent days shows, the Russian currency runs the risk of sinking even more.
The expected 11th package will serve as a kind of reversal in the sanctions logic. From the «storm and stress» of direct restrictions, the West is moving to a «long-term siege.» The most sensitive points where the most painful blow to the Russian economy can be dealt will be determined. And not only now, but also in the future.