After what mark will the extreme collapse of the national currency begin
The depreciation of the ruble is associated with a fall in export earnings in early 2023, but Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin assures that this is a temporary phenomenon and the situation will soon will even out. Financial analysts doubt it. According to experts, in the near future the «American» will continue to grow, and the ruble will lose ground.
, TeleTrade analyst: “The situation on the Russian foreign exchange market is now very nervous. You should try to look at her impartially. So far, the Russian currency has not fallen below last week's low of 83.40 per US dollar. It is gradually stabilizing after moving into a new range of 78-84 per US dollar. The reasons for the move are clear. A similar situation was observed in December 2022, when, after the November decline in oil prices, there was a depreciation in December. Now the situation is the same, the March drop in oil prices was won back in early April.”
, managing partner of the B&C Agency: “According to the statements of the Central Bank, the ruble is declining against the dollar and the euro due to a decrease in exports in the first quarter of this year. Lack of income coupled with rising spending leads to a budget deficit and, consequently, to a weakening of the national currency.”
: “If oil does not hold the rise in prices, which we have been seeing since the beginning of April, then we can talk about a possible continuation of the depreciation of the ruble. The signal for this will be the growth of the US dollar above 84-85 rubles in April-May. This is a key level, the breakdown of which in the coming weeks can trigger an extreme fall in the course. The targets will be 100-110 rubles per US dollar.”
: “Even last year, the regulator predicted that the complex consequences of the imposed sanctions would have the maximum negative effect this year. So you should be mentally prepared for the fact that the dollar will continue to rise, as well as the European currency.
: “The base case for the Russian currency implies a range of 78-84 per US dollar . The ruble can be in it until July-August, but only if there are no external force majeure, such as a banking crisis in the United States. If force majeure does not occur in the next couple of months, then the next wave of depreciation can be expected in the traditionally unfavorable period for the ruble — August — September. Then the targets for the decline of the Russian currency will be the range of 90-95 per US dollar.
: “It is difficult to say what the threshold for the ruble depreciation will be. But the fact is that with the current budget deficit, the dollar should cost about 85 rubles. Apparently, the «American» will overcome this level in the near future.