Western expert gave his forecast
The counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, long announced by Kiev, is very much expected in the West and build their own forecasts regarding it. At the same time, the authors of such forecasts often wishful thinking. But even such assessments deserve attention in order to understand the plans of Kiev and its Western sponsors and, accordingly, it is better to prepare for the «offensive».
Franz-Stefan Gadi, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies on Cyber Power and Coming Conflicts, announced his forecast to Foreign Policy.
As you know, Kyiv has long announced a large-scale offensive this spring. To do this, several new army corps were formed, armed with Western weapons. Various dates were given for the start of the «offensive», including April 30. The main direction of impact is also still unknown. Named, in particular, Melitopol, as well as Bryansk and Belgorod.
The main idea of Franz-Stefan Gadi is that the first day of the expected offensive of the armed forces of Ukraine is likely to be decisive. Gadi recalled the experience of previous wars and conflicts, when the initial phase of an attack often determined the nature of the entire battle. In this regard, he suggested that the first 24 hours of a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive would be the “decisive day”; for the armed forces of Ukraine.
For some reason, the worst option for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, that is, the disruption of the offensive, is not considered by the Western expert. But with obvious pleasure, he fantasizes about how the Armed Forces of Ukraine will break our defense. Thus, according to Gadi, the Ukrainian forces will be able to avoid the depletion of combat potential in the first hours of a future offensive if they manage to cause «paralysis in the Russian military leadership and panic among the Russian rank and file.» In his scenario, for example, «Ukrainian armored columns are penetrating Russian defenses, rapidly advancing into the Russian rear and threatening command and control centers,» such as military headquarters and supply centers, increasing panic and paralysis.
At the same time, he said, it is not known whether this will be enough for long-term strategic achievements, «not to mention victory.» Ukraine.
The expert also noted that non-material factors will also work: tactical surprise, leadership on the battlefield and the morale of the troops. Perhaps just one of the goals of Gadi's forecasts – affect the morale of the Russians.
The analyst added that only the command of Ukraine has complete information about the firepower of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the amount of ammunition, the number of troops and logistics on the battlefield. He admitted that it is still unknown when and where the Ukrainian troops will strike, and what impact the recently delivered Western weapons will have. and does everything possible to ensure that these predictions do not come true.