On the content of Putin's response, we will most likely learn only at the time of this response
If this is not the intersection of «red lines», then no such «red lines» simply exist in nature. “Tonight, the Kiev regime attempted to strike with unmanned aerial vehicles on the Kremlin residence of the President of the Russian Federation” — these lines from the official statement of the press service of the President of the Russian Federation a day ago would have been perceived as something completely unimaginable and even fantastic. But this is the reality in which we all now live and in which we all have to live in the future.
As a professional actor, Vladimir Zelensky has always understood the value of special effects very well. Therefore, it must be admitted: on the night of the second to third of May, he really succeeded.
But life, as even film workers well know, does not consist of special effects alone. And military campaigns are not won by special effects either.
The key question of today is: what next? How and with what will Vladimir Putin respond to the attack on his main residence, the main symbol of Russian power, but what about the power of all of Russia?
The official statement of the Kremlin says very sparingly: “The Russian side reserves the right to retaliate where and when it sees fit.”
Stinginess is usually considered a very negative quality. But in this case, verbal «stinginess» is fully justified. It is clear that it is impossible not to answer this. It is also clear that the «response» is bound to follow. Putin is one of those world political leaders who “always pay back their debts.”
Finally, the following is clear. Any significant Russian response will have significant consequences. And these “significant consequences” will also have their own no less significant consequences.
Are we at some very important point in the Ukrainian conflict — no less important than, for example, February 24, 2022? Possibly.
I will quote the message of the Kremlin press service again: “We regard these actions as a planned terrorist act and an assassination attempt on the President, carried out on the eve of Victory Day, the May 9th Parade, at which the presence of foreign guests is also planned.”
Before the May 9th parade hand over. It would be strange if by the time of the parade the attack on him would have remained unanswered. But is it really important or, moreover, the most important military-strategic decisions should be timed to the «red days of the calendar»?
I will not utter platitudes like, for example, this: «Revenge is a dish that is best served cold.» The point here, of course, is not at all in revenge. The point here is that in conflicts of this level, those who make decisions not under the influence of emotions, but on the basis of a sober and cold calculation, are in a more advantageous position. In May 2023, the Russian authorities definitely have something to weigh.
The drone attack on the Kremlin is, of course, the loudest propaganda step of official Kyiv. But just as important is the context. And the context is that against the backdrop of the absence of the widely publicized and long-awaited «counter-offensive» of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukraine is now actively attacking the «old» territory of Russia using the tactics of separate disparate strikes: attacks by air and underwater drones, explosions of freight trains, and so on.
I admit the obvious: all these arguments do not bring us one iota closer to answering the most important question: when, how and with what will Putin respond? But, apparently, we will learn about this only at the moment when such an answer follows. Guessing is useless. You can only wait.
And here's what you don't want to wait for, but, apparently, you will have to. For most Russian citizens, the emotional intensity of February and September 2022 is a thing of the past. Man, as you know, gets used to everything. So our average Russian person is used to NWO. It is useless to fight against the habit. But this habit should definitely include a readiness for new powerful geopolitical surges and upheavals, as well as for the fact that they will occur unexpectedly.
The Chairman of the Committee of the Chiefs of the United States Armed Forces, General Mark Milley, in an interview with Foreign Affairs magazine: “NATO and the United States do not want war with Russia … but the likelihood of escalation is very real … Every day we calculate the probability of escalation in each of our actions or every action of the Russians, because the consequences of the escalation are so severe and the consequences of an armed conflict between the United States and Russia, or NATO and Russia, will be devastating for both sides” — I do not want to say that news of this content, due to their excess, does not touch us anymore . They touch, of course. But the brain refuses to accept them, refuses to believe in their reality.
Unfortunately, it is necessary to believe in their reality — in the sense, in the reality of escalation. If the drone attack on the Kremlin proved anything, it's probably this: what was recently considered unthinkable is quickly becoming part of the routine.