MOSCOW, May 2, Dmitry Mayorov. a strong reversal momentum, received by the market on Friday, follows from these trades.
The dollar exchange rate with settlements «tomorrow» at 16.28 Moscow time fell by 45 kopecks, to 79.80 rubles, the euro — by 1.18 rubles, to 87.50 rubles, the yuan — by 11 kopecks, to 11.48 rubles, according to the data of the Moscow Exchange.
On Friday, the dollar fell by 1.08 rubles, the yuan — by 12 kopecks, the euro — by 1.05 rubles.
The volume of trading in yuan on Tuesday amounted to 53.4 billion rubles against 27.9 billion for the euro and 88.2 billion for the dollar.
The dollar fell against the ruble by 0.6%, the yuan — by 1%, the euro — by 1.3%.
The ruble keeps growing
The Russian currency continues to grow steadily on Tuesday, having received a strong reversal impulse on Friday. At the same time, the external background in the form of oil becoming cheaper on the world market does not have a very strong effect on the exchange rate dynamics of the ruble.
«The situation on world markets deteriorated sharply in the first half of the day, but the Russian currency continues to show detachment from external drivers. Probably, more extended processes protect the ruble from the weakness of oil, primarily the gradual improvement in the situation with the inflow of foreign currency into the country. This is facilitated by reducing the discount in prices for goods supplied from Russia, which increases export earnings,» comments Dmitry Babin from BCS Mir Investments.
In particular, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation estimated that the average price of Urals oil in April increased by 22.5% compared to March — up to $58.63 per barrel. The average price of the Urals brand in January-April 2023 was $51.05.
The cost of oil falls by 1.5% to $78.1 per barrel of Brent. Oil prices began to decline shortly after the publication of macroeconomic data. The business activity index (PMI) in the industrial sector of the eurozone, according to the final estimate, fell to 45.8 points in April from 47.3 points in March.
The dollar index (the dollar exchange rate against a basket of currencies of six countries — the main trading partners of the United States) rose by 0.2% to 102.3 points, which indicates a weakening of risk appetite on global markets.
Forecasts
Reference points for the dollar, euro and yuan at the end of current trading: 79–81 .5 rubles, 86.5-90.5 rubles and 11.3-11.7 rubles, respectively, estimates Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.
In the short term, the dollar will be in the range of 78.5-82.5 rubles, Dmitry Postolenko from Pervaya Management Company believes.
Against the background of the expected decline in imports and purchases of foreign currency by the population (due to the weak ruble and stabilization of government spending), the growth in commodity income, taxes and foreign exchange sales by exporters may weaken the dollar over the horizon of 3-6 months — up to 74-76 rubles, considers Dmitry Polevoy from Loko-Invest.