MOSCOW, May 3. Kiev authorities in late April — early in May, they declare their readiness for a counteroffensive almost on a daily basis; at the same time, in the West, where the success of such actions is being questioned both in the words of officials and in «leaks» of sources, irritation is growing with Ukraine's plans to join NATO and multibillion-dollar spending on military assistance.
Officially, most Western officials try to look optimistic, but their dissatisfaction and fears become public after anonymous sources talk to the media.
Ukraine is waiting for a go-aheadUkrainian troops are ready to launch a counteroffensive, they are waiting for the decision of the command, said Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov. One of the goals is called access to the coast of the Sea of Azov. In turn, Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the Finnish Yle and other Scandinavian publications that the counteroffensive should allegedly allow Ukrainian troops to seize Crimea.
For his part, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba noted that the expected counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops should not be taken as the last battle. In his opinion, in order for Ukraine to achieve victories on the battlefield, there may be two or more counteroffensives. He believes that the current conflict is not one that can be frozen.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said in early April that the Ukrainian counteroffensive could begin in the summer. The American media reported that the Ukrainian counter-offensive was allegedly scheduled for April 30.
But there is not enough equipment and ammunitionThe United States has transferred to Ukraine almost 100% of the military assistance requested by Kiev for the counteroffensive, but the supply will continue, White House spokesman John Kirby said at a briefing on Monday.
«Based on our negotiations with the Ukrainians about what they need for their planned spring offensive, we have handed over almost everything that was on that list. We have completed (deliveries — ed.) almost 100% of what they requested,» said a US administration official, noting that «new aid packages from us (will be — ed.) very, very soon.»
However, Czech President Petr Pavel, who visited Kiev, said that the main problem of the Ukrainian army today is the lack of shells, because of this, in particular, Western tanks actually become warehouse goods.
«Technique, of course, is also lacking, but the critical shortage of ammunition not only limits Ukraine's ability to defend itself effectively, but also to some extent limits its ability to conduct a successful counteroffensive …» — said Pavel, in whose opinion the Russian army has an advantage in artillery and rocket launchers, but above all — in the amount of ammunition.
Therefore, the West doubts the success of the British newspaper Times, referring to the data of American intelligence leaked to the network, noted that Ukraine is unlikely to achieve major success in the counteroffensive: it is not ready for it, and the best that Kiev expects in this case is «modest territorial conquest.»
US officials believe the offensive is unlikely to lead to a sharp shift in momentum in favor of Ukraine. According to the publication, the Ukrainian military is facing many problems, in particular due to the fact that intense fighting near Artemivsk «depleted their ammunition stocks and led to heavy losses in a number of experienced units.» In this regard, the most likely outcome remains a «deadlock».
In addition, Washington believes that Ukraine should not join NATO, and the possible territorial gains that Kiev plans to achieve during the counteroffensive can only be secured through negotiations, the Monde newspaper reports, citing a European diplomat.
According to the diplomat, the US is «hostile» to Ukraine's NATO membership and prefers to provide it with security guarantees bilaterally.
Western countries are also concerned about the state of the armed forces of Ukraine before the planned counter-offensive and the cost of helping Kyiv, writes the British Guardian newspaper. «The cost of military and financial aid to Ukraine is obviously starting to worry some Western allies,» the newspaper notes.
As emphasized by the publication, the most optimistic representatives of Ukraine and its allies hope for a repeat of the «dramatic military triumphs» of last spring and autumn. But those who spent time in the trenches are less optimistic about progress. «We are not ready … we need more time,» the Ukrainian soldier was quoted as saying by the Guardian.
The military's fears echo those of many in Washington and European capitals who are pouring billions in support of Ukraine but are worried about the «state of its armed forces» after a tough year, the newspaper notes.
Complete Destruction Awaits UkraineDeputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev announced the need to completely defeat the regime in Kyiv and its key figures because of statements about the «return» of Crimea.
Maximum military defeat of the Ukrainian troops will be inflicted by mass destruction of personnel and military equipment used by the «Nazi regime during the counteroffensive,» the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council is sure.
For its part, State Duma deputy from Sevastopol Dmitry Belik believes that the counteroffensive announced by the Ukrainian side will not meet the expectations of the West and the Kyiv authorities are already preparing the ground to explain their failure.
Deputy of the State Duma from the Crimean region, Major General of the Reserve Leonid Ivlev called Zelensky's words about his readiness to seize Crimea a PR.
«The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is so much talked about in Kiev, seems to have ceased to be part of a military operation and has become part of a mythologized PR. On the one hand, this is an attempt to intimidate the Crimeans, to keep them in fear. On the other hand, it is a test of combat readiness Russian troops, suddenly they get nervous. That's why they launch drones. And thirdly, a hint from the United States and NATO — don't forget, give us weapons and ammunition. It won't work. Our response will be quick, tough, military convincing. — said Ivlev.
According to him, Zelensky and his statements can be characterized by a Russian proverb: «The devil boasted of owning the whole world, and God gave him power over a pig.»