Military experts and political scientists predicted the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
“We believe in the success of our planned counteroffensive,” Zelensky said from the rostrum in the Netherlands during his surprise European tour, which coincided with the dates attack by Ukrainian UAVs on the Kremlin. The owner of Bankova can believe even in God, even in the devil — this is his own business. But where and when the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on the offensive is a question of interest to the whole world. We discussed the topic with influential political scientists and military experts.
“Kyiv is still finalizing specific counteroffensive priorities,” world media reported, citing a US intelligence source.
At the same time, from the first days of May, conflicting information began to arrive from the Russian side regarding the activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Thus, the creator of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the Ukrainian formations had already launched a counteroffensive, and they had an abundance of people and equipment.
At the same time, the telegram-channel Brief cited the words of the deputy head of the Kherson Regional Council Yuriy Sobolevsky that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had actually already begun their large-scale counteroffensive. “The counter-offensive is in fact all the ongoing military operations in the southern direction, and there will be no announced date for the start of the counter-offensive,” said an official appointed by Kiev. And the head of the Zaporozhye administration, Yevhen Balitsky, said that, judging by the information from the line of contact, the Ukrainian offensive would begin «in the coming days and even hours.» He also announced the evacuation of 18 settlements in the Zaporozhye region.
The information received from different parts of the line of contact in recent days suggested that so far the Armed Forces of Ukraine have resorted to pinpoint offensive operations and are not daring to launch a full-fledged counteroffensive. So, on the night of May 4-5, units of the Kyiv regime tried to conduct reconnaissance in force in the South Donetsk direction. This was told by the head of the press center of the Vostok group, Alexander Gordeev. According to him, the attacking forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were met by the fire of our artillery, suffered losses and retreated.
So far, the situation at the front is reminiscent of the “one step forward or two steps back” tactics, analysts say. The Kiev regime continues to feed the world community and its sponsors in the West with breakfasts regarding the date of the offensive. Volodymyr Zelensky, who has gone on a surprise tour of Europe, declares from the stands that it is about to begin, and “bad news” awaits the Russians.
Political scientist Sergei Markov suggests that the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may indeed begin in the very near future. Several factors point to this at once, the analyst emphasizes.
— The attacks of UAF drones against fuel depots in Russia have sharply intensified. There are small constant attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on different sectors of the front. It is believed that this is how the probing of the front goes, where it is weaker. Warmer on the line of contact. The soil is ready to carry the tanks.
It is believed that an attempt at a large offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine can begin any day, — Markov predicted a possible development of events.
Meanwhile, some experts believe that the owner of Bankova does not want to send his troops on a counteroffensive at all. No, Zelensky is not afraid. He simply does not want to lose the inexhaustible source of «gifts» from the West in the form of military aid.
— Zelensky does not want to attack anywhere, — says political scientist Vasily Stoyakin, — Now he receives military assistance in huge quantities, and most often for free. But he understands that this help will come exactly as long as there are active hostilities. However, the entire Western press points out that Ukraine is being driven on the offensive so that it can improve its position as a result.
After that, negotiations with the Kremlin are expected. No one in the West expects a decisive victory from Ukraine. We are talking about making peace, at least for a year or two.
Everyone is well aware that as long as the Ukrainian state exists, it will be at war with Russia. But if peace is signed, Zelensky will have to buy tanks and planes at his own expense. It doesn't matter if Kyiv has the money for it or not. Getting free is always more pleasant.
Zelensky does not want to acquire weapons at his own expense and therefore delays the counteroffensive, even though he is being pushed to it. The last date we heard from him was June 20th in Finland.
Some analysts believe that instead of a classic counteroffensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will conduct a hybrid operation with a series of sabotage attacks. UAV strikes on objects in Russia, from oil storage facilities to the Senate Palace of the Kremlin, just marked the beginning of a “hybrid counteroffensive,” experts summarize. Moreover, the main emphasis in such an operation is not on real damage to the enemy, but on the picture and media effect.
— The parties destroy rear facilities. Our people obviously know where the ammunition is stored, where the equipment is assembled, where the control centers are. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are hitting what is burning brightly, but it has little effect on our combat capability,” political scientist Marat Bashirov emphasized, analyzing the activity of the parties to the conflict in the first days of May.
— Terrorist attacks on our territory, ranging from undermining railways and attacks on fuel depots, and ending with an UAV strike on the Kremlin — all this is the first stage of the announced counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In parallel with this, reconnaissance in combat is going on almost along the entire front line.
According to data announced by NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, Ukraine has 230 tanks and 1,500 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. It can be assumed that their offensive will have one main direction and one distraction, — says military historian, director of the Air Defense Museum Yuri Knutov.
The expert notes that the “counteroffensive of drones” can play a special role. A tank is a big, heavy and predictable thing. And drones are not just “cheap and cheerful”. UAV technologies are developing by leaps and bounds, as a result of which the drone becomes almost invulnerable.
— As for drones, not everything is as simple as we think. Their electronics are changed almost once a month or once every one and a half months. In appearance, this is the same UAV, but its filling is already completely different, and the protection from electronic warfare is different. If earlier the drone flew up on command from the operator, was tracked by GPS, and on approaching the target we were already waiting for it and destroyed it, now they fly up according to the program without going on the air and go in complete silence. Finding them is difficult, explains Yuri Knutov.
Moreover, according to Knutov, modern drones are made in a carbon fiber body. Even a number of engine parts can be 3D printed. As a result, for electronic warfare systems, such a «bird» becomes almost invisible.
— If it goes in complete radio silence, is launched by an inertial system and is only occasionally corrected using GPS, we do not see or hear it. In addition, if earlier UAVs flew at a speed of 20 km/h, now it is 50-70 km/h. The development of drones is going at a very fast pace. About once every six months, we have new electronic warfare stations. This is due precisely to the fact that there is a very rapid improvement of the UAV, — said Knutov.
Whether Zelensky wants to attack or does not want, NATO strategists they are already talking about the counter-offensive as an approved plan and talking about the results of what has not even begun yet.
«There are three likely outcomes of the UAF counter-offensive, if it takes place,» Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. Armed Forces, gave an account of the alleged offensive operation of Kiev in an interview with Foreign Affairs magazine.
According to the American commander, Ukraine is now at a crossroads. According to Milli, the first option for the outcome of the offensive is the complete collapse of the Russian front line. This scenario is not from the highly likely category beloved by the Anglo-Saxons (with a high degree of probability — English). But there have already been precedents, Mark Milley noted. The Russian front crumbled during the First World War, which means, they say, and now the Kyiv warriors have a chance to repeat history, albeit a minimal one. The second option is the limited success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The third is the failure of the counteroffensive.
At the same time, Milli does not disclose the timing of the start of Kyiv's offensive (maybe he is hiding it, or maybe he was not informed). But he is firmly convinced that if the “counteroffensive” begins this year, then the hostilities will definitely not end by the end of the year, and the parties to the conflict will hardly achieve their goals.
While Mr. Milli is dividing the skin of an unkilled bear, the media began to leak specifics on possible scenarios for the upcoming counteroffensive. Political scientist Sergei Markov said that there are two main plans for the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: British and American.
— The American plan is simple. The British plan is cunning. The American plan is being prepared by the Pentagon military. The British plan was developed by intelligence.
The Pentagon is confident in the strength of its proxy army The Armed Forces of Ukraine proposes to break through to the Crimea. That is, a military operation.
The British are not so confident in the strength of the Pentagon and the Armed Forces. Together with a strike on Crimea, they propose to unexpectedly seize a large Russian city such as Belgorod and Bryansk by the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a nuclear power plant or hydroelectric power station by allegedly partisans and take hostages, the expert claims.
One of the Ukrainian telegram channels analyzed the possible options for a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — to Kursk, Bryansk or Belgorod, or to Donetsk. The publication’s analysts concluded that any attack on “old” Russia would entail critical image risks for Kiev: “Firstly, the United States, Germany and France have repeatedly stated that they do not allow the use of their weapons to attack “old Russia”. Such an attack will lead to a radical decrease in support for these countries and weaken the position of “Ukraine’s advocates” abroad.
Secondly, there will immediately be votes at the UN General Assembly condemning the aggression against a nuclear power, which will significantly weaken the position of Ukraine.”
The option of a strike on Donetsk seems more “interesting” to Ukrainian analysts, since such an operation could come as a surprise to the RF Armed Forces. But there is a nuance: “This section has a well-equipped defense line, the best units of the DPR are stationed, as well as the terrain — the city, which does not contribute to the lightning-fast development of an offensive on wheeled and lightly armored vehicles. Namely, coordination in dynamics is the main strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, so the speed of advancement is critically important, ”the channel writes and makes another assumption: if Kiev decides not to hit the entire front line during the counteroffensive, but is limited to one pinpoint strike, then it will be more likely only Artemovsk (Bakhmut).
Regardless of the chosen direction of the strike, the Ukrainian counteroffensive will take place, — a military expert, a participant in a special military operation, Ioann Lebedev, is sure.
“Many people say that the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot do anything, no matter how much you fill them with weapons. This is an underestimation of the capabilities of the enemy. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have all the forces to attack. They won a lot of time by sending people to Bakhmut and diverting our resources there,” says Lebedev. “Ukrainian trained specialists have already returned from the United States and Europe, of which several shock units have been formed.”
At the same time, the expert emphasized that our Armed Forces are well aware of the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and are preparing not to attack, but to defend: “We have along the entire front line — in any case, I myself observed the section between Bakhmut and Seversk — defensive structures are being erected. Huge fortified areas are being created.”
The expert believes that Kyiv needs the hype around the date of the counteroffensive not at all for Zelensky’s PR and not because the Kiev leader is afraid. On the contrary, this is a well-thought-out tactic of the owner of Bankova.
— Zelensky does everything according to the classic rules of warfare. He misleads us, imitates pinpoint combat operations so that we stretch our troops along the front line. An effect is created, described in a fairy tale about a boy who shouted: “Wolves, wolves!” When we relax and lose our guard, that's when they attack.