Experts believe that the «acceleration» of the secondary housing mortgage program will not help buyers, but will only warm up prices
The Central Bank and the Ministry of Construction are discussing support for mortgages on secondary housing for six hundred Russian cities where no new buildings are being built. The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, is ready to lower the key rate to activate loans to the population. Is Nabiullina's intention so useful for the Russians, MK experts said.
– I repeat my favorite phrase: affordable mortgage does not make housing affordable, – says the head of the Analytical Center "Indicators of the real estate market" Oleg Repchenko. – On the contrary, as happened in the new-build market, affordable mortgages drove up house prices and led to the formation of a price bubble. The same fate may befall the secondary market in those cities where subsidized mortgages will come. Buyers will not benefit.
By extending preferential mortgages to «secondary housing», even if not in all cities, the state will support not the buyer, but the seller, increasing his profit from the sale of the apartment at the expense of the budget. “Pricing in the secondary market depends almost exclusively on the appetites of the owner, in contrast to the primary market. There are no construction costs, project financing, obligations to equity holders and other factors preventing price reduction. Problems with demand in the "secondary" are solved by lowering the cost of apartments», – says Repchenko.
Most of the sellers on the secondary market bought their apartments many years ago, when prices were at a completely different level. Some owners even privatized apartments or inherited them. «The seller can provide himself with demand by simply lowering the price to the market level, and at the same time he will not go into the red,» – the expert thinks.
At what percentage are Russians ready to take out a mortgage on secondary housing in cities where there are no new buildings?
An adequate mortgage rate (in general, both in the primary market and in the secondary market) during a recent online vote on IRN.RU, potential apartment buyers called 1-3% and 6%, the expert continues. These are the rates that people have become accustomed to in recent years. But people are also looking at the current level of prices for apartments, without reference to which it is impossible to talk about mortgages. And the prices are not encouraging: a secondary meter costs 1.5-2 times more than two or three years ago. But incomes have not grown so much, the rise in prices was not market-driven.
Few people want to take out a mortgage at 10-12% (at this level are the rates for the purchase of secondary housing). For 87% of Russians, low apartment prices turned out to be preferable to low mortgage rates, sociologists say.
There are about 1.1 thousand cities in Russia. Under the new state program, if it nevertheless appears on the market in the discussed volumes, every second settlement will fall. Traditionally, little housing is being built in the Far East – only 3.6 million sq. m for 2022, according to Rosstat. For comparison: only in Moscow in 2022, about 6.8 million square meters were commissioned. m of residential real estate.
Commissioning rates are at a minimum in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (3.5 thousand sq. m. in 2022), the Magadan Region (11.5 thousand sq. m. per year), the Jewish Autonomous Region (25.3 thousand sq. m. per 2022), in the Kamchatka Territory (67.4 thousand sq. m. in 2022) – This is Rosstat data. In the country as a whole, housing is not being built at all or very little is being built in the Republic of Tyva and Kalmykia (0.1 million sq. m each in 2022), Altai and Ingushetia (0.2 million sq. m each in 2022 ), in the Kurgan region and in Mordovia (0.3 million sq. m per year). In the Central District, commissioning statistics are pulled up by Moscow and the region. At the same time, in the Ivanovo, Kostroma, Orel and Tambov regions, for example, 300-400 thousand square meters were built in a year. m of housing.
A resident of Naryan-Mar, Alexander Shokolov, says that there is no construction in the region at all, «only siding.» But he wants to improve living conditions – change the "three-ruble note" for a multi-room apartment, since he has five children.
How do Russians buy housing or change it now in cities where there are no new buildings? How relevant is this for residents?
– Everything is decided through the secondary market, because in general there is no alternative. Either those who need housing go for rent or buy a secondary property, – considers the managing partner of Dombook, the founder of «BEST-Novostroy» Irina Dobrokhotova. – It is clear that there is much less quality housing in such cities than in cities with new buildings, because there is no natural renewal of the housing stock. If the city is active enough, this is a serious problem for residents, because, of course, they want high-quality new housing without wear and tear.
Dobrokhotova suggests that the rate should in any case be less than 10%, ideally – comparable to the rate on a mortgage with state support in the primary market, about 8%.
– The interest on the loan should allow you to pay a monthly installment with a minimum burden on the family budget, – says the expert. – Since we are talking about preferential mortgages in cities where primary housing is not being built, it is clear that the level of salaries there is not Moscow. In regions where the northern coefficient on salaries operates, the costs are also very high. Therefore, first of all, the cost of a mortgage should be lifting for buyers. Of course, the lower the percentage, the better, but there is a key rate, there are issues of state subsidies.
It would be logical to issue mortgages for secondary market apartments in cities with a minimum number or complete absence of new buildings under 5-6 %, believes the head of the department of urban real estate "NDV Real Estate Supermarket" Elena Mishchenko.
"The exchange of housing in the regions is very popular. In addition to transactions with secondary apartments are: cars, garages, inexpensive land plots, household equipment, & ndash; she adds.