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MOSCOW, May 11. The Bank of Russia predicts annual inflation in Russia in the second quarter at 3.6%, follows from the regulator's report.
The current dynamics of annual inflation is largely dictated by the high base effect that arose due to abnormally high price growth rates in March and April 2022, the Central Bank points out.
«Therefore, in the second quarter of 2023, annual inflation will reach a minimum and fall below the target of 4%. According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, the current price growth rate in annual terms will begin to gradually increase as low values are removed from its calculation monthly price increases in the summer of 2022 and an increase in sustainable inflationary pressure,» the materials say.
The Bank of Russia forecasts inflation this year at the level of 4.5-6.5%.
In April, the Ministry of Economic Development improved the forecast for inflation in 2023 to 5.3% from 5.5%. As for intra-annual dynamics, the ministry expects that in June it will be at the level of 3.6% in annual terms, in September it will accelerate to 4.7%, and in December to 5.3%.
In March, inflation in Russia, according to Rosstat, amounted to 3.51%. Information about the level of price growth in April will be published on Friday, May 12.