MOSCOW, May 6, Zakhar Andreev. Moscow reminded the United States of the threat of an eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano. About what is the probability of a cataclysm, and about its possible consequences — in the material.
Ashes covered America
If Yellowstone wakes up, it will be «an unprecedented catastrophe,» Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Security Council, said in a recent interview. According to scientists, an extremely unusual volcano can really provoke a global cataclysm — as it has happened more than once in the past.
Yellowstone Valley, rich in geysers and hot springs, became the world's first national park back in the 19th century. The volcanic caldera — a funnel 72 by 55 kilometers — was seen only in the 60s with the help of satellites. It later turned out that there was a huge magma chamber underneath.
In the early 2000s, the word «supervolcano» was first used in a BBC documentary about Yellowstone. Since then, the term began to be used, including in scientific publications. There is no generally accepted definition of supervolcanoes, but usually they include geological formations capable of mega-eruptions with a magnitude of eight on the volcanic activity scale (VEI).
The scale is based on an estimate of the volume of emissions and the height of the ash column. So, the last of the three known super-eruptions of Yellowstone, which occurred 640 thousand years ago, led to the release of about a thousand cubic kilometers of material. The ash layer covered a significant part of the territory of the modern United States. -crop-width=»600″ data-crop-height=»600″ data-source-sid=»rian_collage» class=»lazyload» width=»1920″ height=»1920″ decoding=»async» />
For comparison: the Tambora volcano, whose eruption was one of the strongest in the history of observations, in 1815 threw out «only» 150-180 cubic kilometers of material, scoring seven points on the VEI scale. This was enough for Western Europe and North America to have a «year without summer» — due to volcanic ash, global cooling occurred. It is believed that, among other things, provoked a cholera pandemic.
Another feature of supervolcanoes is the absence of pronounced cones characteristic of stratovolcanoes such as Fuji, Kilimanjaro or Klyuchevskaya Sopka. Yellowstone is a slightly hilly area surrounded by mountains.
After the discovery of Yellowstone, several more similar geological structures were identified. Today, about 20 supervolcanoes are known. Most are in the Americas.
Is the Heartland safe?
In the event of an eruption, the main blow will be taken by the continental United States. Potential damage is difficult to predict. Some suggest that a third of the country's population will be in the affected area. According to others, the event will destroy all life on the continent in general.
The bulk of the emissions from supervolcanoes are not flowing lava, but clouds of hot gases and ash from small glassy particles. They are the main threat to organisms.
Scientists agree that massive emissions will have a global effect. A huge amount of sulfur dioxide will enter the atmosphere, effectively reflecting sunlight. This will lead to a cooling, which is likely to affect the entire planet. Other possible consequences are acid rain, powerful earthquakes, as well as eruptions of other volcanoes caused by a chain reaction.
Patrushev notes in an interview that the so-called Heartland — the northeastern part of Eurasia, roughly corresponding to the territory of the former USSR — may suffer to a lesser extent. According to scientists, it is logical to assume that the farther the region from the site of the eruption, the weaker the damage. However, it is impossible to predict which parts of the planet will «benefit» the most as a result of a global catastrophe.
How to stop a supervolcano
On average, Yellowstone erupts every 725,000 years. Based on this, the next event is one hundred thousand years. However, volcanoes don't work that way. Supereruptions are rare in principle, and in systems where they occur more than once, the time intervals are unevenly distributed, notes the United States Geological Survey (USGS). molten. The higher the proportion of liquid magma, the more likely the upcoming eruption. Geologists estimate that Yellowstone will be ready to explode when 35-50 percent of its mass is in a fluid state.
Until recently, it was believed that today this figure in the Yellowstone magma chamber is from five to fifteen percent. However, the 2022 study revealed other data — from 16 to 20. However, this does not mean that the amount of molten magma is increasing — just more advanced scientific methods and instruments allow us to clarify the information.
Now the USGS estimates the annual probability of a Yellowstone super-eruption at about 1 in 730,000. including from space. However, even the most modern equipment does not give full confidence that a super-eruption will not happen in our lifetime. Therefore, scientists are already developing methods to stop the threat.
In 2018, NASA experts proposed drilling a ten-kilometer well in the caldera. The water coming through it will cool the magma, and the steam can be used for a geothermal power plant. But in itself, drilling to such a depth is an extremely complex and expensive technology. And given the lack of knowledge of the processes inside the supervolcano, it is also dangerous.
Another potential way to protect against a supereruption is to help the supervolcano «relieve tension» by controlled detonation. «To do this, you can blow something up at a depth of three to five kilometers — people have already learned how to do it quite well. By analogy with avalanches: if a lot of snow has accumulated in the mountains, making it not descend is much more difficult than provoking a controlled descent,» he suggested in a conversation with Sergey Samoylenko, a physicist, volcanologist, and founder of the Volcanarium Museum of Volcanoes in Kamchatka. However, according to Samoylenko, at one time even an asteroid strike seemed like a fantasy.