The EU will have to take control of two-thirds of the world's states
The European Union is preparing to introduce a new, 11th in a row, package of anti-Russian sanctions. This time, according to the idea of Brussels, there will be parallel imports of consumer goods that enter our country, albeit officially, but in a roundabout way. «Unfriendly» Europeans intend to vigilantly ensure that we do not get prohibited (sanctioned) goods from third countries. This was told by the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leinen. Most likely, the punitive measures will ricochet many of our international partners.
The European Union introduced a ban on the sale of European dual-use goods to Russia in the 10th package of its sanctions at the end of February this year. And I already managed to understand that this measure does not give the desired effect. According to Ursula von der Leinen, Brussels noticed a discrepancy between how many goods from the EU go to third countries in transit through Russia, and how much ends up in them. According to European counters, it turns out to be a discrepancy
It must be understood that when transporting cargo from point A (from the European Union) to point B (a third country), part of the goods settles in Russia. Therefore, as a deterrent measure, the issue of introducing a ban on the transit of European goods through the territory of the Russian Federation to third countries is being discussed there.
However, domestic carriers argue that the principle of transit is that the seal on the cargo is not broken all the way from the point of departure to the addressee.
— Automobile transportation with the EU countries has practically stopped today, — explained Bogdan Antonenko, Chairman of the Board of the United Association of Carriers. — Basically, they are carried out by sea, containers from Europe come to the port of Novorossiysk. Already there they are reloaded onto road transport – in the same containers and with the same seals. And they deliver the goods, as a rule, to the countries of Central Asia. No one to look into the container, let alone «work» there over the load can not.
However, the European Union goes further. He wants to raise the issue of restricting trade with states that supply us with European dual-use goods. They, that is, third countries, buy goods in Europe as if for their own needs, and then resell them to Russia. Brussels is determined to close this «shop» as well. — if such acts are legally proven. In this case, Europe intends to simply not supply the sanctioned goods to the "fine" third countries.
It is appropriate to recall here that the parallel import of goods that the Russian market needs was launched exactly a year ago. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, on average, $2.5 billion worth of consumer goods comes to us through this channel per month. By the beginning of 2023, the total volume of purchases for parallel imports was estimated at about $20 billion. However, the European Union, as we can see, is determined to stop this flow .
Many experts are very skeptical about the new European sanctions included in the 11th package. It's one thing, they say, to «butt» with Russia, impose restrictions only on her. And quite another matter – stretch tentacles halfway around the world and keep an eye on every box that enters or leaves a third country.
Today, about 60 countries are unfriendly states. The rest — and there are almost 2.5 times more of them on the globe — friendly towards Russia or neutral, with which we maintain quite normal trade relations. And what, to assign a gendarme to each such country so that he looks into all cargo containers?
Maybe for this reason, the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, believes that chop off the shoulder is not worth it. And you need to carry out «explanatory work» with such countries, to convince them of the need for sanctions against Russia.
— The 11th package will be agreed upon at the meeting of the G7, there is still discussion within the EU countries, different points of view may appear, — says Nikita Maslennikov, leading expert of the Center for Political Technologies.
As for transit of goods through Russia – Brussels is able to «cut off the oxygen», just stop the supply of goods. The damage will primarily be incurred by those countries to which they came through our territory.
Attempts to control our parallel imports are really difficult to evaluate. In this regard, the European Union, in fact, has only one support – USA, as well as the banking system and financial markets of the respective countries. We have already seen this in Turkey and Kazakhstan. All this multiplies the number of conflicts in the modern world, multiplies uncertainties.
The consequences for Russia may be unpleasant, but in this case they can be considered as an additional incentive to develop domestic production. After all, parallel import – it is always finite.
— This is a fundamentally new quality of the 11th package. Sanctions introduce control over law enforcement. They are not formally imposed on these countries. But they control how they comply with anti-Russian sanctions. That is eliminates various workarounds. Here the question arises: to what extent does the EU have enough forces and means for this? In any case, this multiplies the conflicts of the European Union with various states, which is fraught with unpredictable consequences. There will be more uncertainties in the economic world.