Many EU countries are not ready to freeze fuel imports from Russia
On the eve of the summit in Japanese Hiroshima, G7 members continue to polish the nuances of the 11th package of anti-Russian sanctions. Western diplomats are trying to close the last loopholes that allow Moscow to earn on the export of energy resources. However, as the Western media write, a number of EU countries actually go against their partners and categorically oppose a complete restriction of Russian gas supplies through the remaining pipelines.
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Europe has confirmed that it is not yet in a position to completely replace Russian energy resources with purchases of raw materials from alternative sources. It is obvious that the West has a great desire to tighten sanctions pressure, but the cold season that has been experienced is forcing the inhabitants of the continent to be more sober about the choice of claims, the fulfillment of which can ricochet back at them.
The most tempting is the energy sector. For decades, Europe has convinced itself that it will not be possible to quickly find a replacement for our gas, whose share in the energy balance of the continent until recently reached 40%. Nevertheless, against the background of the coming frosts at the end of last year, the Europeans increased their imports of liquefied «blue fuel» from the USA, Qatar and Australia in a matter of months. The effect turned out to be very noticeable — Russia's oil and gas revenues in the first four months of 2023 decreased by more than 52%. Meanwhile, the search for new suppliers turned out to be an expensive pleasure — according to Bloomberg, due to the refusal of Russian gas, the damage to the European economy amounted to $1 trillion.
Despite the losses, the countries of the Old World achieved their goal: literally before our very eyes, Russia turned from the main source of gas for Europe into a third-rate supplier and is now somewhere between Algeria and Azerbaijan in terms of pipeline exports. In the first quarter, Gazprom provided only 7.5% of the total gas imports to the EU, while until recently its share was 30-40%. In 2022, the export of the monopoly to the countries of the continent decreased by about 80 billion to 62 billion cubic meters, and in 2023, based on the current volume of supplies, foreign shipments in this direction risk falling to 23-25 billion cubic meters.
However, according to experts, if the oil imports of the continent, which has thousands of players, can still be compensated by EU members by urgent purchases of raw materials in the Middle East market, then the situation with natural gas is more complicated: almost all pipeline lines from Russia do not work for one reason or another, and terminals for the reception of liquefied fuel in Europe are still categorically lacking. «The EU is not going to create additional risks of a price surge — without gas from Russia, it will not be possible to quickly and cheaply collect the missing volumes for the second time,» said Dmitry Alexandrov, head of the analytical research department at IVA Partners Investment Company.
In the meantime, Ukraine earns on the remaining transit of Russian gas to European states. Deliveries through Ukrainian pipes are carried out in minimal volumes — about 40 million cubic meters per day. Approximately 14.5 billion cubic meters are produced annually, which is 18-20 times lower than the previous deliveries from our country along this route, however, according to independent experts, the transit business still allegedly brings Kiev up to $1 billion a year .
It is clear that the Europeans will not deprive their satellite of the opportunity to earn income, especially if there is a chance to earn extra money in our country. Curiosity is the only point that the Europeans are going to include in the future package of sanctions: gas from Russia can be refused by any interested member of the EU, however, buyers who are not yet ready or not able to freeze the fuel flow from our country can retain the right use the Russian gas transmission system. “In fact, the Europeans, allowing concessions in relation to pipeline gas from Russia, maintain a kind of balance of power,” says investment strategist at Arikapital Management Company Sergey Suverov. — Our most irreconcilable opponents — Poland and the Baltic countries — just as they did not buy Russian raw materials, they will not buy it in the future. Other EU members reserve the option, as a last resort, to turn to Moscow with a request to increase supplies.”