The Ministry of Finance plans to reduce these costs in the next three years
In the period from 2024 to 2026, the reduction in the transfer may amount to 356 billion rubles, that is, minus 17%, the department noted . But don't worry: there will be enough money, as there will be even fewer children.
«This is a technical adjustment for more accurate budgeting. It’s just that there will not be as many births as previously planned in the Ministry of Finance/Ministry of Labor,” the well-known demographer Aleksey Raksha explains the situation.
“I think it was like this (I have already seen such cases with my own eyes): the officials were told: draw a growing birth rate, we will plan payments. And they drew a growing number of births. And, probably, in a line. Most likely, this happened due to the fact that they simply do not know the difference between the concepts of «fertility» and «fertility» and «number of births,» Alexey Raksha continues.
— Birth rate is the number of children per woman. The number of births is the product of the birth rate per woman and the number of women. The fact is that due to the reduction in the number of women of childbearing age, even with a moderately growing birth rate, the number of births will still fall or will not grow in the coming years.
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In 2023, 551.3 billion rubles were allocated in the federal budget for the payment of maternity capital. At the beginning of 2023, the Social Fund reported that the right to pay maternity capital for second children born after 2007, and for first-born children born after 2020, in addition to the existing ones, was given to families from four regions annexed to the Russian Federation at the end of September last year. But, despite the fact that there are more Russians, the demographic forecast for the future is still pessimistic. Therefore, less money will be needed for mother capital. But let's save some money?!
— Apparently, last year the «tail» paid increased amounts for the second to those who did not receive for the first. The number of births last year fell by 6%.
— So far -3% of the number of births and + -0% of the birth rate. This is for the first 4 months. You can expect worse.
— This is a statement of fact.
— Since now, for some reason, the main part of the mother's capital has been transferred from the second child to the first, its effectiveness is falling. His role has not been played at all — if you make a million for the second child, for the third one and a half … The first is born not for the sake of money, and even almost not because they cannot afford it without maternity capital. The birth rate of firstborns is more strongly influenced by non-material factors: individual, family history, psychology, interpersonal relationships, etc. Matkapital here, as expected, did not help. And the birth rate of second and subsequent children due to maternity capital at one time increased due to the fact that many, thanks to it, were finally able to afford the child they wanted before. «Afford yourself» firstborns are talked about much less often, it is more often a “compulsory program”. However, negative events still affect the birth rate even of the first-born. Therefore, if the mother capital on them is canceled, the birth rate will additionally fall.
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“Demography is where we have not yet succeeded. Unfortunately, there is no panacea,” said Dmitry Peskov.
Is there really something that we can’t do? And the authorities are even ready to admit it?
Although here it will not work to escape from reality even with the greatest desire — you either have children or you don't. On paper, you can draw a beautiful forecast, but what's the use of it if they never come into the world?
Maternal capital, while it was issued for the 2nd or subsequent child, brought about 2-2.5 million  ; additional births of Russians, which would never exist without him. Experts believe that the birth rate of second and subsequent children in Russia is closely related to family income a year earlier.
If we take foreign experience, then the birth rate of first and second children until recently was higher in those countries from developed and/or European, where the lowest Gini index or level of material inequality. Is it a coincidence that these states have the best coverage of preschool institutions and generous family and social policies of the authorities?