There is a “physical shortage” of poultry meat on the market
Broiler meat, which has always helped us out when we wanted something tasty and affordable, is threatened with a rise in price. Its cost can even overtake pork, the second most popular type of meat among Russians. According to a study by one of the major analytical companies, there is a shortage in the retail market for broiler carcasses and fillets.
However, while consumers are urged not to worry. As such, there is no shortage, but there is a «physical lack of volumes.» The exact dimensions of which are not known. How does one differ from the other — researchers do not explain. Trading networks are also silent on this score, as if they had taken water in their mouths. However, in the three different supermarkets we visited, the absence of carcasses or broiler fillets was not recorded.
And the prices, it seems, still remain the same. Broilers, which for every day — 140 rubles per kilogram, and those that housewives buy «on holidays» — 240. Poultry fillet (breast) a little more expensive — 260 rubles.
Meanwhile, in 2022, the consumption of poultry meat in Russia increased by 2% compared to 2021 and averaged 35 kilograms per person. Analysts note the massive reorientation of our fellow citizens to poultry, since its meat was significantly lower than other types of — especially the «red» meat. This year, only pork can compete with broilers in terms of availability.
One of the reasons for the upcoming shortage of broilers, analysts call problems in the poultry industry of the Belgorod region, which is the leader in the production of poultry meat in Russia — supplies a little more than 12% to the domestic market. In the areas bordering Ukraine, there is unrest, feed supplies are disrupted at poultry farms, the logistics system is changing.
However, the world did not converge like a wedge in the Belgorod region. According to experts, in the «physical lack of volumes» there are a thousand and one reasons. For example, an increase in exports: with our production today, we can afford it. But in the first quarter of this year, they probably allowed too much — 4%, almost 90 thousand tons of products went abroad. As a rule, exports go to Saudi Arabia, but our deliveries are also waiting in & nbsp; China.
In addition, Russia has new territories. In order to bring down prices for poultry meat, certain volumes of broiler carcasses are sent there.
And, according to the Rosselkhoznadzor, 40 outbreaks of chicken flu have been recorded since the beginning of the year in different regions of the country…
In general, everything goes to the fact that the most affordable and consumed food by Russians will rise in price in the near future. And the first bell has already rung. Over the past week, broiler carcasses in the wholesale sector have increased in price by 9%, to 175 rubles per kilogram. Compared to the same period last year, the increase was 27%, the biggest price jump since 2015. The price of fillet in the wholesale has also risen, up to 275 rubles, and this is also a record for the last 8 years. Well, the rise in price that happened in wholesale will inevitably happen in retail after a while.
In general, chicken is approaching pork in cost, and in the event of a sharp rise in price in retail, consumer preferences may swing just the same in the direction of pork.
— You can buy it for a share for 250 rubles a kilo, — one customer at the meat department explains. — For example, pork ham, and without bones. And a broiler carcass with bones is now not much cheaper.
Actually, the same trend is noted in Rusprodsoyuz. According to its member — research company NTech — The price of a broiler chicken carcass at wholesale auctions last week turned out to be higher than the price of a half pork carcass: 160 rubles per kilogram against 154 rubles.
«The reason for the increase in the price of chicken is a decrease in supply,» analysts emphasize. — However, the growth of retail prices has not yet been observed and it is still premature to talk about a long-term trend»
In turn, poultry farmers assure that they are not going to raise prices for broilers. True, even today their products are more expensive than in the store, on average 300 rubles per kilogram. «But fed purely on the grain» — Poultry farmers add.
— There will be a rise in prices, but within the limits of inflation, — says Vasily Timofeev from Lukhovitsy near Moscow. — The main thing for a bird is feed, and in them most of the — cereals. Before the new harvest, grain prices fell, Both wheat and barley today can be bought at 10 rubles per kilogram, we have no prerequisites for a rise in price.