Investors wait for generous dividends
Despite geopolitical shocks, the Russian collective investment market continues to grow. For stockholders, the dividend season is in full swing. But private investors should not relax. According to experts, the purchase of various assets by a wide front is no longer relevant. The time has come for deliberate point attachments.
For a long time, bank deposits were considered the most popular and reliable investment in the Russian Federation. However, after the Central Bank took a steady course to reduce the key rate, the attractiveness of deposits has noticeably decreased since the beginning of the year. At the end of May, according to Banki.ru, the average rate on deposits in the TOP-15 banks attracting the largest volume of deposits was 5.92%. The profitability of deposits will decrease, which means that the chances of beating inflation are small. Recall that this year the Bank of Russia predicts inflation at the level of 4.5–6.5%.
private investors — Residential Properties. The market for new buildings is clearly «overheated». Residential «squares» are getting cheaper in almost all regions of the country.
Under these conditions, citizens' money «flowed» to the collective investment market. Conservative investors, first of all, were interested in OFZ issued by the Ministry of Finance. “The bond market tends to outperform official inflation and bank deposits over wide time frames,” — noted the director of work with clients of the management company «Alfa Capital» Anna Gondusova.
The recently signed Decree of the President of the Russian Federation on the mandatory substitution of Russian Eurobonds will most likely increase the demand for Eurobonds and, as a result, stimulate their investment attractiveness. Today, issuance of replacement bonds allows you to buy them with a yield to maturity of more than 8% per annum in foreign currency.
“Do not forget about another excellent tool — individual investment accounts. They are always relevant, in any conditions, », — added Gondusova.
Another interesting direction for investment — dividend shares. The Russian stock market is now in the midst of the dividend season. The most striking surprise for shareholders was prepared by Sberbank, which recommended dividends of 25 rubles per share. per share (10.5% dividend yield) — this is a record level for the bank. In the financial sector, the bank «Saint Petersburg» was also pleasantly surprised: for 2022, it paid 21.15 rubles. per share, which equated to a 12.6% dividend yield at the cut-off date.
According to «MK» Head of Information and Analytical Content Department, BCS World of Investments Vasily Karpunin, Bashneft decided to pay unexpectedly large dividends — RUB 199.89 per share (13.6% according to current quotes of preferred shares). The Beluga Group also pleased with large dividends (400 rubles per share at the end of 2022, the dividend yield by the cut-off date was 8.5%). Surprisingly large dividends for last year are going to be paid by LSR: 78 rubles. per share, or 11.7% dividend yield on current quotes. Tatneft's final dividends also turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations.
There are other positive dividend stories. According to Gondusova, recently Sovcomflot confirmed that he would send 50% of net profit for dividend payment. This gives investors a 7% dividend yield for only the 1st quarter, and by the end of the year, the dividend may already be double-digit. «Phosagro» recommended a dividend for the 1st quarter of 2023 of 3.5%. It is expected that Rusagro will also decide on generous payments.
Recall that in order to receive dividends, you need to hold securities at the closing date of the register. It is first recommended by the board of directors of the company, and then approved at the general meeting of shareholders. Those who hold shares on the cut-off date will then receive the payout.
As always, not without a fly in the ointment in a barrel of honey. Thus, the boards of directors of Norilsk Nickel, Gazprom, VTB recommended not to pay dividends this year. But these decisions did not spoil the mood of most investors. Everyone understands that in the end, solid dividends from large issuers will favorably affect stock indices.
According to Karpunin, liquidity inflows from large dividends of Sberbank may appear at the end of May, in June — from Lukoil, Inter RAO, Polyus, in July — from Rosneft, MTS, Tatneft and others. “In conditions of low liquidity, the potential reinvestment of these funds can support the Moscow Exchange index. Now the share of private investors in the share turnover is a record 80%, and for them the dividend factor is just one of the key factors when making investment decisions, — analyst emphasized.
It is no secret that the tense geopolitical situation between the Russian Federation and the West increases the nervousness of Russian investors. “Today it is important to create a balanced portfolio, assembled from different types of assets. It should include blue chips, second-tier stocks, OFZs, corporate bonds, Eurobonds, gold, currencies and commercial real estate. It all depends on how much free money the investor has and what opportunities he has”, — noted the director of the department of investment and corporate business «Tsifra Broker» Alexander Tsyganov. In his opinion, Russian stocks have good growth potential.
However, not all experts share this point of view. According to financial analyst Sergey Drozdov, now is not the best time for buying: “Since October & November 2022, the Moscow Exchange index has grown well and approached the level of 2700 & ndash; 2720, after which a technical correction is possible due to local “overheating”; market across a broad asset class. Plus, the market «plays out» recent stories with company reporting, dividend stories».
According to Drozdov, the topic of deep diversification is no longer relevant. Moreover, in the current realities, such income can be very disappointing. According to the analyst, it is better to focus on clear ideas — shares of Sberbank, Lukoil and possibly Tatneft. But it is wiser to buy these three papers not now, but rather after the correction.
Recently, there has been increased interest in investing in gold, which is traditionally considered an alternative to dollars and euros. Against this background, Goznak began selling gold bars weighing 10 and 20 g to individuals.
“The time to invest in the precious metal is over. Such purchases should have been made last year, when the ruble was strong, and gold quotes were trading at low levels, — Drozdov is sure. He recalled the correction that has been brewing in the American stock market: when there is a sale of securities, investors usually «leave» into the dollar, and the strengthening of the dollar creates a negative background for the exchange quotations of gold.
Drozdov is also skeptical about foreign investment. Today, Western banks are massively warning customers from the Russian Federation about the forced separation of accounts. “Even friendly countries such as Kazakhstan claim to segregate the accounts of Russians. The risks of freezing assets in foreign jurisdictions are constantly growing. In addition, due to the rupture of agreements with the Russian Federation with Western countries, the risks of double taxation are growing. What is the point of buying American stocks if you then have to pay more than 30% tax on dividends? It's time to remember the saying: where you were born, it came in handy there, », — concluded Drozdov.