«Like people in Russia, the Turks are ready to experience serious inconvenience in order to increase the authority of the country»
Recep Erdogan won — the Turkish lira lost: after the news of his re-election, the national currency depreciated sharply . And whether there will be more: experts predict that the lira will collapse by another 40 percent by the end of this year. We asked Alexey Obraztsov, an expert from the HSE Center for Asian and African Studies, to explain the phenomenon of a weak currency under a strong president.
— Well, the political system is stable on the upper floors. The lower floors are more prone to chatter, so there is no need to talk about the strength of the economic foundations. What are the reasons? If you noticed, both presidential candidates before the last round of elections paid a lot of attention to the same issue — the presence of more than a million Syrian refugees in the country.
They need to be placed, they need to be supported, humanitarian and financial assistance should be provided to them, and so on and so forth. Both Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu put the problem of refugees at the top of their programs. Kılıçdaroğlu said that in general he would send everyone back home within a week. Erdogan was more cautious, but he also said that such an influx of refugees is a heavy burden for Turkey. And it is true. This is one of the problems that are sinking the Turkish lira.
There are other problems. For example, the unsettled relationship with foreign markets. First of all — with the European ones. There are also certain limitations in connection with the position that Turkey takes today — both on the Ukrainian problem and on relations with Russia.
— Yes, sure. Although this natural disaster for Turkey was not something incredible: the Anatolian plate has been shaking since the time of not only the sultans, but also the Hittites. Earthquakes always happen there, these are expected things. But of course, it would not hurt to have a more dynamic and qualified early warning service in Turkey.
The fact that the lira fell after the elections is also understandable. Even during the election campaign, Erdogan said: there was information that partners, primarily American ones, are playing, so to speak, against the incumbent president, supporting the opposition. Which is most likely true. Kılıçdaroğlu is a more pro-American, pro-European politician than Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
But pay attention: where did Erdogan start when he spoke to the assembled in front of the presidential palace in Ankara after the election results were announced? One of his first theses: that's it, I won, and now we are creating a gas hub, on which we will make excellent money. And this is generally true. They really make money. There are also a number of other projects, maybe not so large-scale, but also very promising.
In principle, Turkey has a good economic potential and good transit prospects, resulting from a very favorable geographical position. I think the country will cope with its current problems: within a year and a half, the lira will stabilize, and it will go up.
— Yes, Erdogan is a peculiar person. Some of his steps may raise questions. But the Turkish leadership has a huge number of consultants. The Turks are ordering unthinkable studies to stabilize the national currency from European and American institutions and funds. So if the Turkish authorities make such a decision, then 90 percent of it is a decision agreed with international consulting firms and monitoring services. Maybe there is something so clever about it. Maybe there is some incredible Turkish plan behind this. But to be honest, it surprises me too — playing with the central bank rate.
— The official annual inflation is about 80 percent. But the Turkish opposition says that in fact it is almost 200-300 percent. They are somewhat bent, of course, but what is over 100 is for sure. In Turkey, even such a funny term as «lunch» or «kitchen» inflation has appeared: newspapers daily publish the cost of a lunch set of products, showing how much it has risen in price compared to yesterday, the day before yesterday. I think if it were not for such inflation, Erdogan would have won in the first round without any talk.
— Salaries in the public sector are growing really fast. Benefits, social payments — also quite quickly. In addition, there is a wide network of charitable organizations: lunches, dinners for the needy … But the main secret of Erdogan's victory is different. Turks are a political nation. Like people in Russia, they are ready to experience serious inconvenience for some time in order to increase the authority of the country, its role, and influence on international processes. And Erdogan successfully played on this string of the Turkish soul. Many Turks really like Erdogan's fairly independent foreign policy.