MOSCOW, June 9 High inflation in the global economy will return in 2025-2026 as oil prices rise to $130-150 per barrel Brent, predicted for managing director M.I. Achkasov & Co Maxim Achkasov and told what to invest in in such conditions.
In recent years, the policy of the leading central banks threatened inflation, and only in 2023 did its performance “force” regulators to take measures that slowed down the rate of price growth, the expert argues. «The data show that in the US inflation (on an annualized basis. — Approx. ed.) decreased from 6% in February 2023 to 5% in March and 4.9% in April. In this regard, the second half of 2023 may become the period of the beginning of a turn towards easing monetary policy by leading central banks, including lowering interest rates,» he expects.
«However, despite the slowdown in inflation in 2023, this may turn out to be a temporary trend. A sharp rise in prices, in particular for food, indicates that inflation is not going anywhere. In 2025-2026, higher inflation levels are expected to return — 5-7% compared to the expected corridor of 4-5% in 2023, if you look at the US economy,» Achkasov predicts.
Inflation will continue to increase against the backdrop of rising prices for raw materials and industrial metals, the expert expects. «This trend is a direct result of a long period of underinvestment, which will lead to a structural deficit in the market. In particular, the price of Brent oil is expected to be in the corridor of $100-130 per barrel in 2024 and $130-150 in 2025. Significant growth oil prices and exceeding $100 per barrel in 2024 will trigger the start of inflation acceleration,” he expects. Brent has fluctuated in the range of 71-77 dollars per barrel in recent weeks.
«Rising prices for agricultural products, due to an imbalance between growing demand and limited areas under crops,» will add fire «to the inflation rate. The latter is exacerbated by climate change, which has a negative impact on crop yields,» adds Achkasov.
Gold and precious metals serve as classic tools for savings during times of inflation and economic shocks, he notes. «In addition, investments in industrial metals and agricultural assets can show high returns. A concentrated portfolio of investments in these sectors will become a reliable protector of capital and a risk hedging tool,» the expert concludes.