The state will buy enterprises at a discount and sell them at a mark-up
Nationalizing someone else's good, acquired by overwork, is in our people's blood. Recall 1917, when literally in one day the factories went to the workers, and the land to the peasants. But, it seems, «the battle continues again.» The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, confirmed the discussion of the nationalization of companies from unfriendly countries that decided to leave the Russian market.
According to sources, a document on the state's priority right to buy out Western assets at significant discounts is ready. And then the government itself will decide which Russian company will get a tidbit of the pie. True, it will sell it in reliable hands, and at market value. The difference in price will be used to compensate for the huge budget deficit.
And the budget, as you know, is bursting at the seams. According to the Ministry of Finance, in the first five months of this year, the oil and gas revenues of the federal treasury have halved, to 2.85 trillion rubles. Total revenues fell by 19%, while expenses, on the contrary, increased by 27%. As a result, the budget deficit at the end of May reached 3.4 trillion rubles, while at the end of the year it was planned that it would not exceed 2.9 trillion.
First of all, the nationalization will affect the extractive industries of the economy and the production of consumer goods. It will be inevitable, since the authorities need money to implement various social programs.
It is noted that the scheme for the exit of Western companies from Russia has not yet been fully formed and, as they say, it still needs to be «worked on».
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After the revolution of 1917, when domestic and foreign bourgeois fell under the nationalization, everything was much simpler. The conditional sailor Zheleznyak came to the factory — and the workers became the owners. Without any compensation to the owner from the state. And now — laws, agreements, legal registration of transactions…
In a word, many Russians welcome the dispossession of Western assets and say that brands that have decided to leave our market will say thank you that they were paid some money .
About 2,000 foreign companies are in line to leave Russia. And it is moving slowly because of bureaucratic regulations.
Will nationalization help patch holes in the budget? On this topic, we talked with Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
— I believe that there are many mechanisms in this regard. But the simplest and most convincing one is either you sell on our terms, or you don't sell anything at all. This is a strong argument. Someone will decide that it is better to still get some of the funds than to lose everything.
— We do not fully predict how the process of nationalization, if it starts, may affect the overall investment climate in the country. It's one thing — brands leaving Russia. But, following this process, will our potential investors from friendly countries want to buy such assets? It seems to me that such risks were not fully calculated. After all, Russian investors will also want to buy cheaper. And will our bureaucratic machine be able to sell them at market prices? This is a question. Yes, we have companies that will not stand up for the price. But they are few. And with the current high economic uncertainty, investors must risk their own money. It may turn out that the state, using various mechanisms of influence on Western partners, will buy out their assets at big discounts. But it will not be possible to find an effective replacement for them.
— Such fears cannot be discounted. Investors, for objective reasons, are not ready to pay big money. In another situation, maybe they would not have traded, immediately laying out «money on a barrel.» But now they will measure and weigh their financial capabilities seven times.