It is too early to put an end to the history of the June uprising
“We do not follow his movements. We have neither the ability nor the desire to do this, ”the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented at the end of the working part of this week on Alexander Lukashenko’s statement that Yevgeny Prigozhin is currently “not on the territory of Belarus.” I envy Dmitry Sergeevich's lack of curiosity — I envy him, but I just can't share it. Yevgeny Prigozhin is not a private person whose movements do not concern anyone. Prigozhin is the architect of an unprecedented event in the history of modern Russia, the organizer of the rebellion, which, although it was not brought to an end, nevertheless became world news. “Not wanting to follow the movements” of such a character is surprising to say the least.
However, «surprisingly» is perhaps not quite the right term to describe this situation. To some extent, I understand the reasons for the evasiveness of Dmitry Peskov. “Diplomacy loves silence,” Sergey Lavrov said in September 2013. And politics also loves silence — especially at a time that can by no means be called peaceful. From the point of view of Russian state interests, Yevgeny Prigozhin's entire public activity is one big mistake. A mistake, the price of which was the buildup of the internal political situation in the country. However, an attempt to correct this mistake by ousting from the public space all information about the future fate of Prigogine is a new mistake. It is pointless to try to tightly lock the doors of the stable after a horse has voluntarily jumped out of it. Instead, you must first return the horse to the stall and only then hang a barn lock on the door.
At the end of June of this year, the official line of power regarding the future fate of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the PMC created by him, as you know, changed several times. Vladimir Putin at the height of the mutiny: “The one who organized and prepared the military mutiny, who raised arms against his comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And I urge those who are being drawn into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic, unique mistake, to make the only right choice — to stop participating in criminal acts. Everything is clear and logical. Dmitry Peskov in the evening of the same day: “He (Prigozhin -) will go to Belarus … If you ask what kind of guarantee that Prigozhin will be able to go to Belarus, this is the word of the President of Russia.” Not exactly consistent. But no such «consistency» is worth rivers of spilled blood. Therefore, everything is clear and logical again.
But what is happening now is, at least, not entirely clear. If Prigozhin was supposed to “go to Belarus”, then why, according to such an absolutely authoritative source on this issue as the President of Belarus, as of this Thursday “is he in St. Petersburg. Maybe he went to Moscow in the morning”? My colleagues kindly suggested to me the most logical version of the answer to this question: Prigogine is completing his business in St. Petersburg and/or Moscow, preparing to leave the country. I agree, it sounds logical. But the logic in this situation must be confirmed by the statement of an authoritative person, such as, for example, Dmitry Peskov or Alexander Lukashenko. However, there is no such statement. This means that the version about “completing things” is just speculation, based not on facts, but on our assumptions.
And as far as Yevgeny Prigozhin is concerned, conjectures and assumptions are very bad advisers and forecasters. For example, even an hour before the start of the rebellion, I was absolutely sure that Prigozhin would not risk a direct challenge to the Kremlin and disobey Vladimir Putin. And he took a risk, thereby breaking the whole usual logic of Russian politics. Once again I repeat: I am not naive. I understand why the authorities are trying to resolve the situation in the PMC «Wagner» in the backroom silence. But the authorities must also understand: the desire of the public to know the facts about the future fate of Prigozhin is not at all idle curiosity, which has no place in a warring country. While these facts are not available, it is still too early to put an end to the history of the June rebellion. In the meantime, there is no such point, there is no need to talk about the full restoration of domestic political stability either.