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MOSCOW, July 9 Gazprom's export earnings from the European direction in 2023 may drop four times, to $30 billion, while the budget will lose about $28 billion, but the losses will be offset by an increase in the tax burden on Gazprom as a result of an increase in the severance tax and an increase in supplies to China, Maria Belova, research director at Vygon Consulting, said in a comment.
“According to our expectations, in 2023 Gazprom’s exports to European countries, including Turkey, will decrease from 85 to about 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas. record high of $1,440 per thousand cubic meters, in 2023 the average annual prices will be about $500,» Belova said.
«As a result, Gazprom's export earnings from the European direction may decrease by about $90 billion compared to the previous year's level, while the budget will lose about $28 billion from the reduction in revenues from export duties,» the agency's interlocutor added. In total, gross export earnings from the European market in 2022 were estimated at Vygon Consulting at about $122 billion.
At the same time, the above losses will be offset by an increase in the tax burden on Gazprom as a result of the increase in the mineral extraction tax, Belova noted. In addition, according to her, the volume of pipeline deliveries to China is expected to increase from 15 billion cubic meters in 2022 to about 22 billion this year, which will positively affect Gazprom's revenue and budget revenues.
The start of a special military operation and related sanctions have affected the decline in Russian gas exports to Europe. Due to non-payment of gas under the new scheme in rubles, Gazprom stopped deliveries to Bulgargaz to Bulgaria, PGNiG to Poland, Gasum to Finland, GasTerra to the Netherlands, as well as Shell Energy Europe to Germany and Orsted to Denmark. Deliveries along the main route, Nord Stream, as well as Yamal-Europe, have ceased, and the Ukrainian gas transmission system has significantly decreased.
Gazprom, which in recent years has been a key supplier of gas to Europe, exported to non-CIS countries, as reported by the head of the company Alexei Miller, in 2022 almost half as much as a year earlier — 100.9 billion cubic meters of gas (- 45.5%, 185.1 billion cubic meters in 2021). This has become the minimum volume since the early 1990s.