MOSCOW, 13 Jul. In 2023, the Russian Federation will harvest enough rice to meet domestic demand in excess, while rising world prices for this product, coupled with a weakening dollar, could set the stage for a possible increase in selling prices by domestic producers, said the general director of the analytical center «Prozerno» Vladimir Petrichenko.
Earlier Thursday, Bloomberg reported that India is considering a ban on the export of all varieties of rice except for basmati: such a move could reduce domestic prices, but in parallel, the already high cost of rice on the world market could still rise. India's share in world rice trade is approximately 40%.
«We have absolutely enough of our harvest: firstly, this year the sown areas have recovered, and secondly, the weather conditions are favorable in the south now — it is expected that we will harvest 1.06 million tons of rice. This is more than enough, and we could export if the export ban is lifted,» Petrichenko said.
With the arrival of the new crop, he continued, domestic prices may even drop slightly, especially against the background of the closure of external supplies. «But in general, there is a price growth trend on the world market, and it is still on the rise, for our domestic prices there is a possibility of an increase due to both the international situation and the growth of the dollar,» the expert believes.
Thai rice has become the driver of this trend. Thailand is one of the key suppliers of rice in the world, but due to bad weather, its harvest there, according to the USDA, may decrease, and this is already being translated into prices — from June to today they have added $20, to $510 per ton (at FOB, Bangkok port).
«World rice prices are already on the rise. Taking into account the depreciation of the ruble, it turns out that import parity in price is growing, which may indirectly affect the selling prices of rice in the Russian Federation,» Petrichenko suggested. Meanwhile, world rice production compared to last year will increase, according to the USDA, to 520 million tons from 512 million, he recalled, while Thai rice may decrease in output to 19.7 million tons from 20.2 million, and Indian rice — adjust last year's record to 124 million tons.