«No need to twitch now, it's better to wait»
The joke of the last days: they say that the only advantage of the ruble's fall is that it has finally become easy to recalculate prices from euros, just add two zeros to end, and you're done! On Monday, July 10, 2023, the European currency crossed the psychological threshold of 100 rubles. True, few will be able to use such simple arithmetic — with such a wild exchange rate, those who still go abroad will be less and less. We found out what is happening in Moscow currency exchange offices.
On Monday morning, the correspondent of «MK» looked into several currency exchange offices in the center of Moscow. On the weekends, as we know, the rate did not change, but at the beginning of the working week, people were in for surprises. For example, in one of the points in Lubyansky passage, the sale of the dollar — for 92.5 rubles, sale of euro — 101.5 rubles. It is noteworthy that the American and European currencies, which allegedly equalized a year ago and went head to head for a long time, again maintain their nine-rouble distance, which is classic for Russia. Near the window it is free, it doesn’t even smell like fuss.
— Hello, do you have currency available?
— Yes, — the cashier answers phlegmatically.
— Both dollars and euros?
— Both dollars and euros.
— There is no excitement, people don't buy?
— No.
The operator was laconic, but the trend speaks for itself: there is no shortage of currency, panic — Same. Although the presence of dollars (and euros, which have become almost a curiosity!) may hint at a new trend.
Some people, who have already realized that the topic of traveling abroad is closed for them in the foreseeable future, decided to dump their foreign currency savings and buy useful rubles — especially now that the course has become profitable for them. True, the «fork» between the purchase and sale of the currency is quite large: it will be possible to sell the dollar for 86 rubles (when buying for 92.5).
However, it still benefits many — dollars and euros are dead weight at home, and rubles can be spent here and now. This is how banknotes appear at the box office and, accordingly, are sold: we recall that today banks have the right to sell only the currency that other people brought there, and strictly after April 9, 2022.
At a bank branch near the metro «Lubyanka» the exchange rate is almost the same: 92.5 rubles per dollar and 101.4 rubles per euro. At the window where they change money, a small queue gathered — only three people, everything is within the normal range. The manager, who helps customers orient themselves, only shrugged.
— I have not noticed that the currency exchange has become more popular or less. Everything has been stable for the last two or three months. People are mostly calm, and people know what they need. Someone comes to buy 50 euros, someone asks for large sums, 3 & ndash; 5 thousand, but this has always been the case.
Buying currency now, indeed, can be calmer than a year or six months ago: if in winter a couple of thousand dollars would have to be collected from several exchangers, regardless of the exchange rate, — there would be cash in the box office! — and it was generally recommended to forget about the euro, now money is more accessible. Another thing is how many people will need them at such draconian rates…
Earlier, economists often called the dollar at 100 rubles a kind of psychological boundary, which would be extremely difficult for Russians to get used to. Now this milestone is approaching, and people seem to react extremely sluggishly.
Meanwhile, many ordinary people are wondering why the ruble has fallen so much, although there have been no colossal political and economic upheavals lately? Doctor of Economic Sciences Igor Nikolaev in an interview with the correspondent of «MK» noted that the explanation here is quite simple:
— The fact is that exports this year have decreased compared to what it was before. That is, we sell abroad and receive, accordingly, less currency. I believe that market participants have paid attention to the statement of the Ministry of Finance that the sale of foreign currency will be halved, they should have started on July 7. That is, the supply of currency on the market has declined quite a lot.
At the same time, the demand for currency is increasing, because parallel imports are increasingly generating this demand. The next nuance — the holiday season has begun, and those who have the opportunity to relax abroad are trying to buy foreign currency. This is the main and main reason for the jump in the rate.
The expert gave the Russians reasonable advice — do not rush to buy currency in alarm that tomorrow the rate will be even worse. When such sharp fluctuations occur, it is better to wait.
— If it becomes obvious that the rate will not return back, then, if necessary, it will be possible to buy dollars and euros. Well, now there is no need to twitch, it is better to wait.
It seems that the majority of Russians have already come to the same conclusion intuitively — a wonderful anti-example for them are those unfortunates who last March bought dollars at 110-115 rubles. Therefore, about purchases for speculative purposes — to resell later — This is no longer a question: the events of the last year and a half have clearly shown the Russians that it is virtually impossible to win at this roulette.
By the way, a study of one of the large banks — experts concluded that in June 2023, Russians exchanged dollars 2.4 times more often than euros. At the same time, the average check of a transaction for the sale of cash dollars in June 2023 — $446, and for the purchase — $766. The euro has an average sale of €497 and purchases of — €800.