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ISTANBUL, Jul 16 The new extension of the grain deal will be a surprise, given Russia's justified claims to its implementation and the fact that Western countries no longer need Ukrainian grain , said Aydin Sezer, a Turkish political scientist and former Turkish trade representative in Moscow.
Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said on June 21 that there are no prerequisites for extending the grain deal, since obligations towards Russia are not being fulfilled. The grain deal expires on July 17.
Sezer recalled that earlier Russia had agreed to extend the deal for only two months (and not four) because of the claims that existed at that time.
According to him, the part of the Black Sea initiative concerning the export of Ukrainian grain is being carried out without problems, Moscow did not interfere with its implementation, although a significant proportion of the products were exported to rich Western countries, and not to the poorest, including African.
At the same time, part of the initiative concerning the memorandum of the Russian Federation — the UN on the export of Russian fertilizers is not being implemented due to «the negative position of the West, which does not show proper tact,» Sezer noted.
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“The indifference of the West regarding the deal can be explained as follows: the West is no longer interested in Ukrainian grain, moreover, many European countries have imposed bans on Ukrainian grain and agricultural products. We can say that Western countries no longer need this deal,” the expert explained.
“The West does not respond to Moscow’s conditions when its main goal is to tighten the embargo against Russia. In this regard, Russia is quite understandable if it does not extend the deal. In my opinion, Russia will be right,” Sezer said.
He recalled that Russia's demands to reconnect Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT, remove restrictions on insurance of Russian ships and many others were not satisfied .
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“In my opinion, if the deal is extended this time, it will come as a surprise. I think that a new agreement is needed, taking into account all the conditions, if the West and the UN are still interested in Ukrainian grain,” Sezer said.
On Saturday, President Vladimir Putin, in a conversation with his South African counterpart Cyril Ramaphosa, said that the obligation to remove obstacles to the export of Russian food and fertilizers had not been fulfilled. During the conversation, Putin stressed that the main goal of the deal, namely the supply of grain to countries in need, including on the African continent, has not been realized.
In early June, the EU extended until September 15 restrictions on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products to a number of EU countries. It was reported that, according to the decision, free circulation of products is allowed only in EU member states, with the exception of Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. We are talking about wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds.
At the end of March, the prime ministers of a number of EU countries turned to the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, with a request to intervene in the crisis caused by the influx of grain from Ukraine.
The Black Sea Initiative, which was signed on July 22, 2022 by representatives of Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the UN, involves the export of Ukrainian grain and food, as well as fertilizers across the Black Sea from three ports, including Odessa. The coordination of vessel traffic is handled by the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul. Putin pointed out that the West exports most of the Ukrainian grain to their own states, and not to the needy African countries.
The grain initiative is an integral part of the package agreement. The second part, the Russia-UN memorandum, designed for three years, provides for the unblocking of Russian exports of food and fertilizers, and among the main tasks were the reconnection of the Russian Agricultural Bank to SWIFT, the resumption of supplies of agricultural machinery, spare parts and services, the restoration of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline and a number of other measures. As noted in Moscow, this part of the package agreement has not yet been implemented.