High temperatures could push global food prices up
The unbridled heatwaves that Europeans and North Americans have been facing in recent days are not only discomforts and potential health hazards. Trending heat threatens global food security, scientists warn article__picture-image» alt=»High temperatures could push global food prices up» />
As meteorologists record record high temperatures, researchers are sounding the alarm: Global warming could mean future crop failures on land and a «silent death» of life in the world's oceans.
Consecutive heatwaves threaten nature's ability to provide us with food, scientists warn of an «invisible, silent death» of our oceans as record temperatures scorch the Earth.
Heatwaves sweep across Europe, the US and China, and in early July, the world recorded the hottest day on record, threatening human life and the land and sea that life depends on.
«Our food system is global,» John Marsham, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Leeds, quoted The Guardian as saying. – There are growing risks of simultaneous major crop losses in different regions of the world, which will have a real impact on food availability and prices. So far, right now, we are not seeing this, but in the coming decades it may become one of the things that I really fear. As a person — if you are rich enough — you can hide from the heat indoors and turn on the air conditioner. But natural ecosystems and farmed ecosystems cannot do that.”
The heat wave in European countries in 2018 has already led to numerous crop failures and crop losses of up to 50% in Central and Northern Europe. And last year, record temperatures in the UK ruined fruits and vegetables in the bud. Unprecedented hot temperatures and heavy rains in parts of China caused problems in livestock and crops early this summer, stoking food security concerns in the world's second-largest economy. Last summer, the Celestial Empire experienced the worst heat wave and drought in decades that disrupted food supply chains, and this year, extreme heat has hit many parts of China even earlier than in 2022. Scorching temperatures are killing pigs, rabbits and fish, and wheat fields in central China have been flooded by the heaviest rains in a decade, CNN reports. Meanwhile, authorities are concerned that drought could hit the Yangtze River Basin, China's main rice-growing region, in the coming months.
Extreme weather, such as drought and floods, could disrupt food production and bring more uncertainty to food supplies, said Sheng Xia, chief agricultural analyst at Citic Securities. He warned of growing threats to food security this year due to the looming El Niño, a natural phenomenon in the tropical Pacific that brings above-average temperatures. El Niño could cause global warming to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the 19th century for the first time.
After last year's heat wave and drought, Beijing has stepped up its focus on food security. In the spring, Xi Jinping said that agriculture is the backbone of national security. “Once something goes wrong with agriculture, our bowls will end up in someone else’s hands and we will have to depend on others for food. How can we achieve modernization in this case?” he emphasized in an article published in March in the party's main theoretical journal, Qiushi.
But all of the above — it's still «flowers». The «berries» will appear, according to scientists, by 2040 — it is expected that by that time heat waves will become 12 times more frequent than levels that existed before global warming. While a single heat wave may not wipe out an ecosystem, longer and more frequent events will mean that nature simply won't have time to recover.
Professor Marsham notes: “People are generally insulated from the effects of weather, on which we all depend. We go to grocery stores, but we don't grow them ourselves. But if you talk to farmers anywhere in the world, they are well aware of what the weather does and how it affects their agriculture.”
The climate crisis is intensifying heat not only in the atmosphere but also in the world's oceans, harming coastal communities and threatening another key food source for humans. Heat stress leads to a sharp extinction of marine fauna. For example, a “heat dome” that developed along the Pacific coast of Canada in 2021 is estimated to have killed about a billion marine animals.
“We often think about the impact on ecosystems on land, because it’s easy to see — plants wither, and animals get too hot,” says Daniela Schmidt, professor of geosciences at the University of Bristol. “But people generally don't think about sea heat waves. What really worries me is the invisible, silent dying.”
Some of the most vulnerable ecosystems are those that are accustomed to stable temperatures year-round, such as species in tropical oceans, explains The Guardian. A warming of 2 degrees Celsius is expected to significantly destroy tropical coral reefs, which have the highest biodiversity of any ecosystem in the world and support more than 500 million people worldwide (most of whom live in poor countries).
Research by scientists is only beginning to get closer to understanding how heat affects ecosystems. Under a high-emission scenario with 4.4°C warming, 41% of terrestrial vertebrates will experience extreme heat events by 2099, according to a paper published in the journal Nature. Stress caused by high temperatures can cause numerous problems affecting growth, fertility, immunity and behavioral changes. To escape the heat, the animals will go to the mountains and head towards the poles. Ultimately, this will likely lead to the extinction of a large number of species.