Scientists' Grim Prediction: It Will Only Get Worse
Scientists say the deadly global heatwaves are undoubtedly the result of the climate crisis. The analysis shows that human-induced global warming is destroying people's lives and without a sharp reduction in emissions, it will be even worse.
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The deadly heatwave that has hit Europe and the US in recent weeks is undoubtedly to blame for the human-caused climate crisis, scientists have proven. As their analysis showed, both would be practically impossible without global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels. Another debilitating heat wave in China has become 50 times more likely due to the climate crisis, writes The Guardian.
The results make it abundantly clear that human-induced global warming is already destroying lives and livelihoods around the world, making the need to reduce emissions even more pressing. Such violent heatwaves are no longer uncommon, scientists say, and they will intensify as emissions continue to rise. If the world warms by 2 degrees, it will happen every two to five years.
A March report by leading climate scientists, endorsed by the world's governments, said: «The window of opportunity to ensure a livable and sustainable future for all is fast closing.» The latest analysis showed how quickly this window closes.
Earlier in July, temperature records were broken in many places in Southern Europe, the western United States, Mexico and China, leading to heat-related deaths and wildfires. The first week of July saw the highest global temperatures on record. The researchers found that greenhouse gas emissions led to a temperature increase of 2.5°C in Europe, 2°C in North America and 1°C in China.
“Such heat waves are no longer uncommon, and most importantly, these extreme events are killing people, especially destroying the lives and livelihoods of the most vulnerable,” says Dr. Friederike Otto of Imperial College London, who was part of the analysis team.
“Politicians often claim that they care about normal people and the poor,” she says. – If we really valued people, then it would be quite obvious what we need to do. I don't think that stronger evidence has ever been presented on a scientific question.
According to Dr. Otto, it is «absolutely important» that governments agree to phase out fossil fuels at the UN climate summit Cop28, which opens on November 30. Summit President Sultan Al Jaber is also the CEO of the host nation's state-owned oil and gas company, the United Arab Emirates. “We still have time to secure a safe and healthy future, – notes Dr. Otto. – If we don't do this, tens of thousands of people will continue to die from heat-related causes every year.
Julie Arrighi, director of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Center, says: «Extreme heat is deadly and rapidly worsening.» She said it was critical for countries to take action to protect people from the heat. Last week in the UK, experts called the government's adaptation plan «very weak». On Monday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signaled that he could delay or withdraw some of the Greens' policies. under pressure from the right wing of their party.
A similar series of heat waves across the northern hemisphere in 2018 was also considered impossible without global warming. Scientists have now analyzed more than 500 extreme weather events, finding that 93% of heat waves and 68% of droughts have become worse and/or more likely due to anthropogenic emissions, writes The Guardian.
More than 61,000 people died during the European heat wave of 2022, including more than 3,000 in the UK, according to a recent study. In another study, it was estimated that over the past three decades, millions of people around the world have died from heatwaves due to the climate crisis. However, global progress in reducing fossil fuel burning remains very slow, and the G20 became the latest group whose plans were blocked by opposition from fossil fuel states, led by Saudi Arabia on Saturday.
A new analysis by the World Weather Attribution group used peer-reviewed methods to quantify the impact of the climate crisis on recent heatwaves. They used weather data up to July 18 and computer models to compare today's 1.2 degree Celsius global warming climate with the cooler climate of the late 1800s.
The study found that heatwaves in Europe and the US are at least 950 and 4,400 times more likely to occur due to global warming, making it virtually certain that they were the result of anthropogenic emissions. In China, the likelihood of a heat wave has been increased 50 times.
In today's hot climate, such heat waves are expected to occur approximately every five years in China, every 10 years in Europe, and 15 years in the US, but will occur more frequently as emissions continue to rise. As El Niño intensifies, a natural climate event likely added some heat to the heatwaves, scientists say, but global warming from burning fossil fuels was the main reason for their severity.
Gareth Redmond-King of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit in the UK says: “As we continue to burn fossil fuels, we are exacerbating the impact on the climate. This will not stop until we cut emissions to net zero. Politicians who try to delay climate action are capturing more of these extremes.