The Russians are preparing to create strategic stocks of cereals
Autumn is the time not only for mass harvesting of vegetables, but also for the creation of strategic stocks of long-term storage products. Sugar, matches, kerosene — this should be in the closet of every family. And also our traditional cereals — rice and buckwheat. Meanwhile, according to some media reports, buckwheat is about to start to rise in price, it's time to run to the store…
According to news agencies, wholesale prices for buckwheat began to grow since April this year. And by September, they can completely rush up — by 10 percent, from 41 thousand rubles per ton to 45. This is in wholesale. However, there is only one step from wholesale deliveries to the counter. Although retail chains are not yet warning about their plans to raise prices for this product.
Rice is also becoming more expensive. But there is a good reason for this cereal — a crop failure associated with last year's destruction of the Fedorovsky hydroelectric complex in the Krasnodar Territory, when huge plantations of rice paddies were left without water.
For buckwheat, it's just the opposite. In 2022, buckwheat was harvested 2.5 times more than in 2021, more than 1.2 million tons. The record is almost the same as in the gross harvest of wheat. During the past agricultural year, it fell in price by 46.6%.
What's the price for her? The Rusprodsoyuz Association informed us about the dynamics of wholesale prices for cereals in general and for buckwheat in particular. As of July 17, for a week, prices for millet groats increased by 3.7%. In the wholesale link, it costs 28.1 rubles per kilogram. In rice rose by 2.5% — up to 61.6 rubles. Our buckwheat has risen in price least of all over the specified period — by only 0.8%.
Today, prices for it do not cause concern, a kilogram package from 50 to 150 rubles can be found in any store. But, as they say, it's not over yet. Recall the hype around buckwheat in 2020, during the coronavirus pandemic. Then she jumped in price immediately by 1.8 times. Now no pandemic is expected, but inflation expectations are quite alarming.
Dmitry Leonov, deputy chairman of Rusprodsoyuz, sees an increase in freight rates in the price turbulence of domestic cereals. Some experts consider the depreciation of the ruble to be one of the factors.
But buckwheat is a purely Russian product. We can say that almost no one in the world except us grows it. That is, we do not import it, we do not spend dollars on it (with the weakening ruble) and we do not transport it in a roundabout way through parallel imports. Everything is produced within the country — in Bashkiria, Altai, Voronezh and Kursk regions.
In September-October of last year, they put it in storage, and in June, a few months later, the ruble began to depreciate. Why should buckwheat become more expensive in this regard?
They talk about the factor of record growth in exports of this crop. But by and large in the world it is not particularly favored. And even more so, there is no hype around buckwheat somewhere in Europe, as it is around wheat today. So what drives prices forward and higher if we have a bumper crop and we fully meet our domestic needs?
According to Igor Abakumov, Candidate of Economic Sciences, host of the Rural Chas program, there are no economic prerequisites for a rise in the price of this cereal.
— Before harvesting a new crop, it is necessary to free storage from last year's residues, and they are very significant, — he says . — Perhaps, the old buckwheat would have been enough for us for another year and a half. I do not rule out that the story around buckwheat is created artificially in order to buy it quickly.
It is clear that such anxious expectations will find a warm response from the Russians. In this case, it is useless to dissuade them from buying, «the genetic code works.» People instinctively rush for buckwheat, as well as stew, rice and pasta.
According to experts, buckwheat can be stored for years. To ensure such long-term storage, they recommend buying it already in packaged form. Then lightly fry at home in the oven to destroy unwanted bugs and spiders. Then pour it into a glass container.
And you can not be interested in the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and the euro for several years.