«This, of course, is little consolation for Ukraine»
After the Russian withdrawal from the grain deal, Lithuania offered the European Commission to transport Ukrainian grain through the Baltic ports. Political scientist Oleksandr Dudchak analyzed the extent to which this is a real alternative to the Black Sea humanitarian corridor.
On July 18, Russia withdrew from the grain deal before fulfilling its obligations to the Russian side. A week later, the Lithuanian authorities offered to use the Baltic ports to continue transporting Ukrainian grain. According to their calculations, in this way it will be possible to transport about 25 million tons of grain annually. However, the delivery of grain to Lithuania is possible only through the use of land corridors through Poland. Will Poland agree to transport such a volume across its borders, given their ban on the import of Ukrainian grain? Is a collapse of military and humanitarian supplies to Ukraine due to the appearance of new cargoes in the transport system possible? Political scientist Alexander Dudchak answered these questions in an interview with MK.
— Through the Baltic ports — easily. Let them pull. Great idea. You can support. Have them load up the railroad and there will be some traffic jams like before the grain deal started last year. Maybe this will interfere with the schedules for the delivery of weapons from Europe to Ukraine.
— We shouldn't care about that. But last year, a cork of 11 thousand containers with Ukrainian grain was allegedly observed in the region of Poland.
— This is a transit. They were worried that the cargo that was in transit was getting lost somewhere. Let them control now. In any case, farmers in Eastern European countries are now tense. Probably, they will organize control over the movement of these goods on their own, because this is a serious problem for them. Eastern European countries are suffering from Ukrainian dumping, while Western countries are wringing their hands and shouting that grain prices are rising due to the lack of a grain deal. We would have already agreed on a common position.
— This, of course, is little consolation for Ukraine. In this case, intermediaries will continue to earn on Ukrainian grain. Most quickly, they will force Ukraine to sell grain at dumping prices. The poorest countries will not get anything at dumping prices, they will receive grain already at inflated prices, as is happening now. But, on the other hand, it's good that the channel for the illegal supply of weapons to Ukraine under the guise of a grain deal is being shut down.