It is not yet clear whether the national currency will start to rise again
The ruble has stopped falling, it is strengthening. On August 17, on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar was already trading for 92, and the euro for 101 rubles. Accordingly, the authorities, with the direct participation of President Putin (according to sources), have so far decided not to introduce draconian measures in the foreign exchange market, such as the mandatory sale of part of the proceeds of exporters. What is the threshold at which these measures can be introduced, we asked BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov.
– In the main current trading session, the dollar is trading at level of 92-93 rubles. The ruble has already strengthened against the dollar by more than 8%.
However, after a long previous period of dollar strengthening (by 103% per year), this can only be assessed as a small rollback, not a reversal.
If the rate falls below 90 before August 25, then we can talk about a trend reversal, but still not a reversal. The reversal process is lengthy.
Besides, the fundamental problems for the ruble, which weakened it so much earlier, remain, and they cannot be solved by raising the key rate alone. The Central Bank removed only the speculative component.
The imbalance between the demand for the currency and its supply remained. The oil market was again under pressure due to weak statistics from China and the recovery of the dollar index. In this regard, the ruble may quickly return to the level of 100 rubles after the peak of tax payments on August 28.
The strengthening of the ruble occurred on the wave of expectations by exchange players of an increase in the key rate and the introduction of additional measures in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the ruble.
The Central Bank raised the rate from 8.5% to 12%, and the measures did not enter. Market participants are waiting for the tightening of currency control and the return of the mandatory sale of part of the foreign exchange earnings (from 70 to 90%).
Let me remind you that until March 2022, the key rate did not actually have any noticeable impact on the foreign exchange market. And now the Central Bank uses it mainly to fight inflation, and not to support the ruble exchange rate.
— Our foreign exchange market is low-liquid and unpredictable. So, on it you can see price fluctuations up to 5% in different directions. The normal exchange rate range for the authorities used to be 80-90 rubles: it was announced, in particular, by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov.
If the downward dynamics in the dollar continues, then the level of 87-88 rubles can be set as a goal . I do not believe in this level of correction, so I expect fluctuations in the range of 90-100 with an average dollar price of 95 rubles.
— Open historical data for any commodity or product. For decades, prices have only been rising. The price of gasoline in our country is growing both with an increase in the price of oil, and with a reduction in price. There are sometimes small corrections, and then prices update new highs for all goods and services. Nothing has changed and will not change.
So the prices have been rising in the past and will continue to rise in the future.